How do you guys go on such insane downswings?

[DcifrThs]

good post ed, im sure this will help OP. i would however take one issue w/ your quiz:

EDIT: also you should be wary of raising KJo and A9o vs. very tight limpers. w/o any mention of the requirements of your opponents, you can assume on average they are bad enough to raise all those hands (Except arguably 99). but KJo isn't a good one to raise a very tight EP limper since he'll have you in trouble a good portion of the time...of course, this is assuming he plays a normal postflop game and isn't super weak as well as tight.

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Quick raising quiz. Which of these hands would you raise?

1. Two players call to you on the button with QJs.

2. One player calls to you on the button with A9o.

3. Three players call, including the small blind. You have 99 in the big blind.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 and 2 no brainers. but now you are in the bb vs. 4 people w/ 99. this one i think is close. sometimes i dont raise this spot. but i do w/ TT. 88 i check. 99 is a close CO b/c as you know the extra money in there definately reduces the chance you win the pot but bloats it so when you do win its a nice sized pot. if you put another 2 players in there i do raise but its for set value and implied odds therein. if you take away two players i'll raise to try to get it HU w/ the limper (sb folds). and this is a good reason to raise to try to eliminate sb but i doubt he'll fold anything he completes with getting 9:1.
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4. Button limps, small blind calls, and you have A7s in the big blind.

5. One player limps to you in MP with KJo.

6. One player limps. You have 77 in the SB.

Basically, you should be raising in all these spots. I doubt you can honestly say that you would, though.

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other than 99, i totally agree with all of them. if you were the SB w/ 99 i think id lean towards a raise more than if i was in the bb and the sb already completed after 3 limpers.

Barron

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For me personally, on of the biggest leaks in my game right now is losing too many bets with good second-best hands. Since having a lot of those situations in a short period of time is almost always part of a downswing, it tends to exacerbate my downswings while not really affecting me much when the cards are running normally.

I suspect this is also true of a lot of other 2+2ers.

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Yeah I agree having 2nd best hand really puts a damper on your win rate.

[Guthrie]

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Ok, time to stop being defensive and, instead, to listen. Your results are lackluster, and people are telling you why, but you aren't listening.

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I realize my results are lackluster, but just telling me to raise more doesn't help. I posted the entire list of starting hands from late position from the entire session in question, and nobody has yet to identify a single hand that I should have raised and didn't. They just keep saying "you should raise more."

I'd love to raise more. Tell me where!

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You don't raise enough before the flop. 7.7% is not enough. Your PFR should be at least in the double digits.

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Trust me, I'm not trying to argue with you that 7.7% is not enough. My starting hands are based religiously on your book. There may be errors, but I'm not making this [censored] up, I'm following your advice first, and then the Micro Limits Forum. If I'm missing something, I'd love to hear about it and fix it.

I've also been using the Pokertracker stats post in the FAQ of the Micro Limits Forum as a guide. This says that the typical PFR range is 7-10, and "a few posters exceed 10." If you say it should be at least 10, and everyone here agrees, then maybe someone should update the FAQ.

But if 10 is the number, great. I'd be more than happy to get there. Tell me how.

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2. I sense you have a postflop problem that you mentioned in passing, but actually is bigger than you think. I think you are folding the best hand after the flop too often. When you limp in too much with quality hands, you'll encourage others to raise behind you with weaker hands because they will underestimate your strength. Then, if you automatically check-fold the flop when you miss, you've unwittingly turned their bummer of a hand into a winner. I think you are losing a lot of hands that look like this:

EP limps. You limp with A8s. Guy behind you raises KTo. Folded to EP who calls, you call. Flop comes J75. You check and fold.

Raising more often preflop helps reduce the number of times you make that error (and also gets your weak-tight opponents to make that error more often to boot).

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I'm not sure I understand the hand. What's my position? I'd raise A8s from the last three positions, then I'd lead or raise the flop.

If I'm in middle position with A8s, then I'd limp. I'm fairly sure that's straight out of your book.

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Frankly, I think you are lying to yourself when you say you based your raising decisions on what's in SSH. I think you read that chart selectively, and, perhaps even subconsciously, backed off some of the more "dangerous" raises.

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I spent many hours converting your chart to a format I can use while playing. For my first 40K hands I referred to it almost every hand, now I keep it next to the PC for reference in close situations. I'd be more than happy to send it to you and let you put a red pencil to it.

I really don't think I back off "dangerous" raises. On the contrary, I look for places to raise. Either I'm not finding them, or my strategy is fundamentally incorrect.

The problem I'm having lately, since I started using PokerAce, is that I'm actively seeking out loose games. In these games, the times it's folded around to me, or just one limper, in late position, are rare, so I've been unable to raise more in those circumstances. If you think I should go ahead and raise KJo in the CO after two or three limpers, I'll be happy to take a shot.

In tight games my PFR is much higher. Not only are there far more opportunities to raise otherwise limping hands from late position, but the results are more immediate. But you say, everyone agrees, and I want to believe, that the money is in loose games.

[ QUOTE ]
Quick raising quiz. Which of these hands would you raise?

1. Two players call to you on the button with QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise, every time, no matter how many limpers.

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2. One player calls to you on the button with A9o.

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Now here's a problem. I don't raise, and you're the reason why. On page 74 of SSHE, last paragraph, you list A9 as a "junk offsuit hand" and say that it should not be played, with the possible exception of on the button for one bet only. My reasoning is that if you say it should be played for one bet only, then it shouldn't be raised after one limper. I do tend to raise on the button with it first in if the blinds are tight, and sometimes if they're not.

Last night it was folded around to me in CO with A8o. The button was unknown and only had 3BB in his stack. The blinds were both weak/tight, so I raised. The button called, the blinds folded, and I made a straight flush. So yeah, I understand the concept and I'm not afraid to make dangerous raises.

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3. Three players call, including the small blind. You have 99 in the big blind.

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I raise, every time, unless I can 3-bet.

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4. Button limps, small blind calls, and you have A7s in the big blind.

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I raise. If button had a hand, he should have raised, so I assume his hand is not a lot better than random. A7s in a three-way pot is a good hand.

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5. One player limps to you in MP with KJo.

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I call. If I wouldn't even play KJo from early position, then why should I raise with it from MP after one limper? I'd sometimes raise one limper from the last three positions, but not from MP. I'd nearly always raise it first in from the last three positions.

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6. One player limps. You have 77 in the SB.

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I raise. More now than before. Playing some 6-max and lots of NL SNGs has made me much more aware of hand values short handed and HU.

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Basically, you should be raising in all these spots. I doubt you can honestly say that you would, though.

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I really do look for places to raise, not avoid raising. I just don't find them. For example, if I have AQo on the button, and it's raised by a loose player, I tend to 3-bet even though your chart says fold. Maybe that's another leak, but it's sure not being afraid to raise preflop.

Again, I'm not trying to argue, I'm just trying to find out what's wrong. I understand the concept of pre-flop raising. I wish my PFR were higher. When I play in tight games my PFR goes up. There are more opportunities to raise first in. I steal more blinds, continuation bets work. In loose games, however, I rarely have an opportunity to raise first in from late position. If I need to start raising KJo from MP after one limper, I'll do it, but I'd like to have some guidelines, because everything I've seen written says the opposite, including your book.

And I'm still waiting for someone to look at the list I posted and tell me which of those hands I should have raised.

[sthief09]

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I honestly cannot understand it. Every day on this site I see some story about a 200+ BB downswing. How does this happen to so many supposedly good players? Do you tilt away 100BB? Start playing scared? Exagerate?

I've played poker for about 6 years and had one downswing of over 150BB. My pro friends almost never have a 200+ downswing (i.e., like once a decade). I understand variance, and I play a LOT. Maybe I am just insanely lucky, or maybe I just don't tilt away money when I am running poorly. But it's gotten to the point where I barely come here anymore because of the depression/paranoia that all the downswing posts threaten to generate. Before coming here, I was honestly under the impression that a really bad downswing almost never happens to an expert player, and that when it does it's really major stuff (like Doyle's).

Anyways, I'd like some thoughts on why do many players on here seem to hit major downswings so often. I have a theory (being too tight and slightly weak magnifies downswings greatly), but I'd like more opinions.

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welcome back cinnamonwind

[Guthrie]

On the list I posted, in only one hand I folded was I first in, and I think I noted that. All the rest there were at least one, and almost always two or more limpers.

As far as "variance as an excuse" I agree wholeheartedly. What I was trying to do, and it backfired, was point out that it's possible to hit a single horrible session that, if repeated a couple of times, can easily result in a bad downswing. When this happens, you start to question your play and start to fix leaks that don't exist, you tighten up, your play suffers, and the downswing intensifies.

However, what happened here was that everybody saw the 3% PFR for that session and launched immediately into an attack saying that is the entire reason for this bad session, yet not a single person has yet to step up and identify one single hand that should have been raised that was not.

Since there are no perfect poker players, well except the great Phil Helmuth, then every downswing must be a combination of bad play and bad luck. There's nothing we can do about bad luck, but when it masks bad play then we have a real problem. I'm not blaming my downswings on bad luck, I just posted a single session where I think the bad luck portion was greater than the bad play. Instead of identifying the bad play, everyone just tells me to "raise more" as if that would somehow deliver better starting hands and cut down the suckouts. That doesn't help.

I'm not sitting back afraid of passive players beating me on the river. I'm trying to determine how to overcome it. If preflop raising would do it, then I'd auto-raise every hand. I just want some guidelines on how to get from where I am to where I need to be, other than "raise more."

I'm not saying "I couldn't have played it any better." I'm asking "How could I have played it better?" so that the bad luck wasn't compounded by my bad play.

[Ed Miller]

[ QUOTE ]
However, what happened here was that everybody saw the 3% PFR for that session and launched immediately into an attack saying that is the entire reason for this bad session, yet not a single person has yet to step up and identify one single hand that should have been raised that was not.

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The issue isn't 3% over one session. The issue is 7.7% over 40k hands. Please forget about that session. You ran real bad, and continuing to talk about it isn't helping. FWIW, I looked through your list and didn't see any obvious "no-brainer" raises you might have missed.

But just saying "AJ twice, raised twice" doesn't tell me a whole lot. The whole preflop action is important.

I appreciate what you said about the SSH charts, particularly WRT A9o, KJo, and some other hands. I apologize for being a little harsh, and you are right that the charts have you playing too passively sometimes.

I might make the charts a little differently today if I were doing them over.

I think the concept you most need to learn is "isolation." The idea is that if a single weak and loose player limps into the pot, some "limping" and even some "folding" hands can become worth raising, particularly if the blinds under-defend. That's the play being made in the A9o raise above.

A weak (presumed because so many open-limpers are... if this is an exception, please also make an exception in your play) player limps in. You end up with A9o on the button. Your hand isn't great, but it's good enough that you'd like to take it heads-up against the limper. So you raise, hoping to fold the blinds and play against the limper.

You can isolate from earlier positions if your hand is stronger. KJo in MP is such an example. Though KJo is strong enough that I tend to raise a couple limpers with it from MP on unless the limpers are tougher-than-your-average-limper players.

Hopefully this helps.

For Barron: Ya, I agree that a couple of the raises are definitely borderliney. I intentionly tried to come up with borderline situations to push the envelope, so to speak. Though I certainly don't think raising with 99 in the BB is flat out bad, and against particularly loose limpers I'd definitely do it.

[Guthrie]

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The issue isn't 3% over one session. The issue is 7.7% over 40k hands. Please forget about that session. You ran real bad, and continuing to talk about it isn't helping. FWIW, I looked through your list and didn't see any obvious "no-brainer" raises you might have missed.

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I'd be happy to forget about that session. The issue over the 7.7%, however, is news to me. Like I said, that is within the range in the FAQ. It was lower when I first moved to 1/2, then higher when I started raising additional hands, and higher still in tighter games. The high water mark was around 8.8% I believe, and I clearly have a long way to go to get it over 10%, hence my frustration.

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I appreciate what you said about the SSH charts, particularly WRT A9o, KJo, and some other hands. I apologize for being a little harsh, and you are right that the charts have you playing too passively sometimes.

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I used to hunt down commie spies and terminate them, and now I'm a screenwriter, so I eat harsh for lunch. Be as harsh as you like, just shoot straight and we're cool.

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I might make the charts a little differently today if I were doing them over.

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Do them over and publish a new addition. I'll pay in advance. Better still, just e-mail me the chart and don't publish a new edition!

[ QUOTE ]
I think the concept you most need to learn is "isolation." The idea is that if a single weak and loose player limps into the pot, some "limping" and even some "folding" hands can become worth raising, particularly if the blinds under-defend. That's the play being made in the A9o raise above.

A weak (presumed because so many open-limpers are... if this is an exception, please also make an exception in your play) player limps in. You end up with A9o on the button. Your hand isn't great, but it's good enough that you'd like to take it heads-up against the limper. So you raise, hoping to fold the blinds and play against the limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

It helps, but I still don't see how I'm going to get to 10% in these loose games. They seem to defend their blinds to the death. It clearly works better with loose players on my right and tight ones on my left, but I can't find those games often enough. I usually end up with loose players on both sides. This is why my PFR is actually lower than it was. The blinds "always" call the raise, and the original limper or two also stay in, so I have 3 or 4 opponents instead of one or two, and when an ace comes on the flop it's usually all over.

[ QUOTE ]
You can isolate from earlier positions if your hand is stronger. KJo in MP is such an example. Though KJo is strong enough that I tend to raise a couple limpers with it from MP on unless the limpers are tougher-than-your-average-limper players.

[/ QUOTE ]

This one is much tougher for me to get. If your chart says to call from MP with it, how many limpers could there possibly be before it gets to me? Shouldn't the chart just say raise? Again, I'm not arguing, and I'm not saying I won't raise it, I'm just trying to understand why I would raise one or two limpers, but call three.

And by the way, thanks. What started out as a thread on variance has become quite productive.

[bernie]

sigh...

Among other quotes:

[ QUOTE ]
My starting hands are based religiously on your book.

[/ QUOTE ]

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For my first 40K hands I referred to it almost every hand,

[/ QUOTE ]


Seems you're trying to play by rote. Instead of understanding why you should be raising, you're not looking at the situation. You're just looking at a chart.

A9o on the button with one limper, for instance. Briefly: You realize you usually have that limper beat at that point, right? So a raise pressures the blinds to fold which will then leave you HU, with position against a weaker preflop hand. The situation you gave:

[ QUOTE ]
Last night it was folded around to me in CO with A8o. The button was unknown and only had 3BB in his stack. The blinds were both weak/tight, so I raised. The button called, the blinds folded, and I made a straight flush. So yeah, I understand the concept and I'm not afraid to make dangerous raises.


[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't a dangerous raise.

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And I'm still waiting for someone to look at the list I posted and tell me which of those hands I should have raised.

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I just skimmed your list. You do see that there is some info missing, right? Look at Ed's examples, then yours. Again, you seem to be only playing off a chart as far as position and disregarding the situation.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Instead of identifying the bad play, everyone just tells me to "raise more" as if that would somehow deliver better starting hands and cut down the suckouts . That doesn't help.

I'm not sitting back afraid of passive players beating me on the river. I'm trying to determine how to overcome it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize that you want to be sucked out on, right? The longer the shot the better. The goal isn't necesarily to prevent this from happening. You might be looking a little too much at just winning pots than just playing well during the hand. You're also looking at too short term of results, imo. As Ed said, forget that session. Look at the overall play.

Btw...The more aggressive you are(within reason), though the shortterm variance is a bit higher, the swings aren't as high overall. Even though you're putting more money in during a hand/street.

b

[bobdibble]

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I used to hunt down commie spies and terminate them, and now I'm a screenwriter

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my favorite part of the thread.