88 vs a tight villain

#1 10-21-2005, 04:16 AM

10+1. villain is 25/4 over 25 hands.... i was truely unsure of how to play this hand. i have 50 invested as the sb so it is 560 to call.

for poker stove i gave him 22+, ats+, kqs, ATo+, kqo as possible ranges. although i guess ato, kqo, and kqs, and low pairs could be a little too wide of a range.

anyway using these #s i am 51.76%

if we tighten up the range to 99+ Ajs+ kqs, and ato+, i'm at 41.91 %.

So i guess this comes down to defining villain's range. if i win i am near chip lead, but if i lose i am down to only 8 BB's.

this may be a clear cut call for most of you so sorry if this is basic. thanks.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter

BB (t490)
UTG (t2105)
UTG+1 (t610)
MP1 (t485)
MP2 (t915)
CO (t1265)
Button (t660)
Hero (t1470)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font> utg+1 pushes.

Final Pot: t150

tigerite · #2 10-21-2005, 04:59 AM

Ah sorry I thought UTG was pushing. This is a closer one than I thought..

You're wrong to think only of how much you win against his range, though. You should be thinking of ICM and what % you need to win by that to be +$EV. Forget BB as you'd be correct to push from the SB to him if all folded to you anyway, no matter his range, so he's not an issue.

Basically you need to win 46.3% against his range. If you think this is likely given what he may be pushing with, go for it.. for what it's worth this means his range should be looser than 55+,ATo+,A9s+.

Scuba Chuck · #3 10-21-2005, 05:01 AM

Pot odds are 1.25:1. You need to win here 44% of the time for this to be correct. Furthermore, what's the benefit to defend the 50 chips in this pot? There's better opportunities ahead. Seriously, this is a very easy fold.

88 is a hand you don't mind seeing a showdown with if you are the aggressor, but not the caller.

tigerite · #4 10-21-2005, 05:04 AM

46% Scuba, not 44.

Scuba Chuck · #5 10-21-2005, 05:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
46% Scuba, not 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not bickering. How'd you get 46%? I just did my back of the envelope math again, and still got 44.

tigerite · #6 10-21-2005, 05:08 AM

ICM %, sorry, wasn't talking about the pot odds % you need. Then again ICM is always slightly higher.

Fold = 0.1746
Call/win = 0.2475
Call/lose = 0.1135
Edge = 0.001

x * 0.2475 + (1-x) * 0.1135 = 0.1746 + 0.001 = 0.1756

0.134 x = 0.0621

x = 0.0621 / 0.134 = 0.4634 = 46.3%

Scuba Chuck · #7 10-21-2005, 05:16 AM

So you're saying that ICM says you need to win here 46% for this to be profitable, and that you're agreeing that pot odds are saying that you need to win 44% of the time for this to be profitable?

tigerite · #8 10-21-2005, 05:17 AM

Yes, when I read your post originally I thought you were saying you need to win 44% of the time for it to be +$EV. Didn't know you meant pot odds, apologies.