Has he got quads?

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter


The river concerned me. I 3bet PF and now he's capping the turn with 3 Ts showing. What's the best way to go from here?


Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?

Villain is 22/7/1.2 9K hands

[Str8Fish]

cap it until your fingers bleed.

He is more likely to have AA or QQ or even 88 than to have slow played his trips on flop.

Any stats on the guy? The only 10 hand I can see someone raise that early in full ring is A10s or 1010 (impossible).

I say cap it and tip your hat if he has the quads. Its more likly he doesnt and you don't want to lose value.

[AussieBattler]

grunch:

In absence of a read Ill assume a reasonable player.

I bet that river and call a raise.

Based on action the only hand that i am worried about here is A10s and maybe A10os but that would be MUBS. We beat everthing else in his range raise but not capping preflop.

nh

Edit: can I change my answer....cap it.....just calling a raise would be MUBS wouldnt it? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Seriously though, I might start giving just a little credit to a really passive player after a river raise but cap anyways and bust his 8s.

[masse75]

I'd cap the river. Raising in MP, I can see him on a variety of high pairs, including AA and QQ. Once it's heads-up PF, maybe he slowed down to trap. By the turn, he can figure he's got the best boat...and maybe he does at that point.

2nd nut...if you're on the short end, oh well...

I cap this one, if he got quads, im paying him off but I except the chips to go to me.

I bet/call.

And I don't think it's MUBs.

If his range is AT, AA, QQ he's actually more likely not to have AT.

6 ways to have AA.
6 ways to have QQ.
4 ways to have AT.

You are ahead 5/8 times. Cap the river, he's gonna raise with any boat and he likes TTTAA too much to call.

[ QUOTE ]
If his range is AT, AA, QQ he's actually more likely not to have AT.

6 ways to have AA.
6 ways to have QQ.
4 ways to have AT.

You are ahead 5/8 times. Cap the river, he's gonna raise with any boat and he likes TTTAA too much to call.

[/ QUOTE ]



IMO. Bayesian analysis is used too often in situations like these incorrectly. You should use this method of analysis when all of his holdings, when weighted based on previous actions, are equally likely. You can then use Bayesian to see which holding is his most likely due to distribution.

In this case, when he raises the river, I don't think the options are equally weighted.

When he raises after the King falls on the river, I think we can discount QQ heavily. And I think that you can limit his holdings to AA and AT. Without a preflop cap I'm inclined to think that AT is actually favourite; not the other way around.