JJ in stars 11r

[schwza]

last night's 45k guaranteed. villain had just moved to the table an orbit ago. i don't remember anything about his play, but his vpip/pfr is 10/0.

PokerStars Game #2952111090: Tournament #14413858, Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2005/11/02 - 00:52:45 (ET)
Table '14413858 20' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: IUStudent (53516 in chips)
Seat 2: =AF= (25337 in chips)
Seat 3: Devil42 (13205 in chips)
Seat 4: TwoShort4U (34489 in chips)
Seat 5: nechitacc (20945 in chips)
Seat 6: loun41 (20743 in chips)
Seat 7: HERO (19916 in chips)
Seat 8: digitaldoc2 (25796 in chips)
Seat 9: MrNiphty (10766 in chips)
IUStudent: posts the ante 50
=AF=: posts the ante 50
Devil42: posts the ante 50
TwoShort4U: posts the ante 50
nechitacc: posts the ante 50
loun41: posts the ante 50
HERO: posts the ante 50
digitaldoc2: posts the ante 50
MrNiphty: posts the ante 50
IUStudent: posts small blind 400
=AF=: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Jd Jh]
Devil42: folds
TwoShort4U: folds
nechitacc: calls 800
loun41: calls 800
HERO: raises 2200 to 3000
digitaldoc2: folds
MrNiphty: folds
IUStudent: folds
=AF=: folds
nechitacc: raises 5800 to 8800
loun41: folds
HERO: ?

[ilya]

this super-tight guy limp-min-reraises you from EP, you on't have the os to play for a set, & you're not eep enough to get away on a rag flop...i woul muck.

i really nee a new keyboar.

[Sam T.]

Okay, my rough math: t5k into a pot worth 13k, which is nice odds. But unless you've been doing a lot of pwning and think he may be making a move here, it looks like a fold to me. I'd need a damn good read to stay with the hand.

Call: Sucks. It's almost half of your stack, and you're in deep trouble if overcards flop, and (possibly) equally deep trouble even if they don't.

Raise: Also bad. Any raise pretty much has to be a push at this point, and you'll only be called by the big hand he is representing.

Fold: Won't taste good going down, but it's time to take your medicine. JJ is not the nuts.

I'd put him on 80% medium pair, 15% aa/kk, 5% ak. Push. I used to think that people did this with high pairs, but it's almost always a medium pair. It's an isolation play, because clearly you've shown weakness after raising his limp...
I see this play all the time.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put him on 80% medium pair, 15% aa/kk, 5% ak. Push. I used to think that people did this with high pairs, but it's almost always a medium pair. It's an isolation play, because clearly you've shown weakness after raising his limp...
I see this play all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this too, and usually with 99 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img], but this guy is tight, and Hero has no FE.

[ QUOTE ]
It's an isolation play, because clearly you've shown weakness after raising his limp...


[/ QUOTE ]

What?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
this super-tight guy limp-min-reraises you from EP, you on't have the os to play for a set, & you're not eep enough to get away on a rag flop...i woul muck.

i really nee a new keyboar.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain's been here for 10 hands and played 1. you're putting ~100x too much faith in that.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this super-tight guy limp-min-reraises you from EP, you on't have the os to play for a set, & you're not eep enough to get away on a rag flop...i woul muck.

i really nee a new keyboar.

[/ QUOTE ]

?? I thought you sai he was 10%/0%?

villain's been here for 10 hands and played 1. you're putting ~100x too much faith in that.

[/ QUOTE ]

i really think mucking is right even without much of a rea.

[Sam T.]

Okay, I made too much of his tightness as well.

In any case, I still hate a cold call. If you were in the blinds, I might say call, and push any non-Jack flop, as that's the only way you have any FE. Outside the blinds it's push or fold.

JJ is not the nuts, but I'm liking it better. I'm a donkey and push.

Edit: No, fold. Isn't poker fun?

[schwza]

i guess this wasn't totally clear. i didn't have stats on him previously - this was 10/0 in 10 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
villain had just moved to the table an orbit ago. i don't remember anything about his play, but his vpip/pfr is 10/0.


[/ QUOTE ]

[bruce]

Wow!

I either fold or push. I don't think there is a right or
wrong response. This is so damn close.

How are you supposed to know if he has a big pocket pair or is making a play with a medium pair or Ace King?

I think if you break this down into ranges where he reraises
I would guess that you have enough equity to push and hope for the best.

But if he flips over a big pocket pair I wouldn't be real surprised either. I think you're going to see a medium pocket pair or Ace King/Queen here often enough to warrant
a call if you could replay this scenario one hundred times.
Bruce