2/4 AKS no pair. river bet?

[logistik]

Hero is fisy fishy, 48/1.75/50
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (6.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

The river bet screams chip burn to me. Confirm/deny?

[logistik]

K going through some other AKs hands i found this gem.
I think i need to work on my AK play.
villain typical lag
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (9 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB
Terrible check/fold?
Should check/fold?
bet/ check fold river ui?

Im feeling lost here

[toss]

LOL are you calling yourself fishy?

I think you posted the stats wrong. Its supposed to be Vpip/Pfr/Avg.Aggr.

On the river if Button has a high Went To Showdown Rate I'd bet since he goes to showdown with a lot of crap. If he doesn't then I'd check/fold unless villain likes to bluff on the river in this spot.

Tough hands to play HU.

I'm debating myself on the first one. If villain hadn't called 3 cold i.e. just a 2 bet cc, then by all means bet the river. As it is, you probably faced another big ace or a middle to biggish pair, say TT, 77, 66. Maybe a middlish suited connector T9s. Fishy would call 3 with any of those are worse. My guess is that he rolled over a busted draw.

On the second hand, when you checked into the scare card, you were asking for him to take a shot at you. Pot is smallish, so I don't really quarrel with laying down against the 3 flush/4 straight turn card.

Against a LAG I had a good read on, I might bet into him unless I thought he was capable of a bluff raise. If he had something on the turn, he woulda popped and you know you're done. If he doesn't, he's got a similar big ace and you're probably ahead or tied. If you play it that way, you probably need to commit to betting the river UI if he doesn't raise the turn (and river isnt the 4th club or something)...

[mack848]

I don't like the river bet. He either has a draw or a pair. A fishy player won't fold a pair and he won't call with many of his missed draws. I can't see you being ahead &gt;50% here and if he won't fold a better hand (and a fish won't) I check.

I would use my instinct to decide whether to c/f or c/c (although it's usually wrong [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]).

[logistik]

oops in the first one i meant villains fishy lol.
im an idiot

There's no way against a loose, aggressive player that you can bet into that turn, even if he NEVER bluff raises (which is unlikely. With the pot at 6 BB, and you commiting yourself to 2 more bets, you're looking at 1-4 pot odds. You have 3 outs (6 outs that we've discounted to 3 for the times that you are ahead. Betting is horrible! You must fold!

First Hand
Not a fan of the turn bet, I would much rather check/call here for the chance to have it checked through. We arent ahead here enough times for betting here to be profitable, fold equity is almost nil against players with those stats plus facing a check raise here against a monkey would be extremely painful. Depending on his showdown standard I am check/calling or check/folding the river UI. Most of the time given those stats I am check/calling the river.

Second Hand
OOP with 3 to a flush with a suit we dont hold as well as the straight possibilites I think you can feel relatively safe folding to his bet.