I'm so lost at the river here multiway with AA

[SoCalPat]

You'll get a kick out of this one.

Turn C/R turns up ... AA

Maniac shows JJ.

I felt so suckered by this. I had convinced myself that the maniac had a 9. I fully expected the turn C/R'er to show a boat. When he didn't make it three bets after my fold, I started to get a little sick. He would've jammed a flush against this player. He obviously had something less than a flush.

Heads up against either one, I wouldn't have put either one of them on a 9. The maniac would've continued to jam whatever he had (it could've been anything) on the turn, and I'm not sure the turn C/R'er would've check-raised me with only top pair on the board. But multi-way, the action and the resulting cards threw me for a loop.

The turn C/R'er obviously had seen enough of the maniac to limp behind. I have no idea why he didn't make it three bets PF, but as it turned out, it worked perfectly for him, as he used the maniac and his good (yet woefully inferior) hand to drive me out.

Pot was $122. Yeah, I would've chopped, but this is easily my worst fold ever.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]

Pot was $122. Yeah, I would've chopped, but this is easily my worst fold ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

Here's an exercise for you.

1. Give hand ranges to both of your opponents. You can be pretty liberal in this.

2. Determine what percentage of the time you are beating both players.

3. Compare that percentage to the odds the pot was giving for you to call two bets on the river.

4. Calculate your expectation on a river call.

5. Take that number, and that methodology, and drive them into your head.


Now do you still think that this is the worst fold you ever made?

My point is that you mistake by folding this river is really never that big. Getting like 10-1 or whatever on the river (this was 3/6, right?), you only made about a 1 BB mistake if you would have won this 20% of the time, which you basically never are.

You probably made the right decision folding. I would have. If it was a mistake, it wasn't bigger than the amount of money you give up every time you post the small blind....