Interesting deep stack live hand ...........(i think)

[Lawrence Ng]

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i think my problem was that i had such a strong gut feeling that i was beat i couldn't pull the trigger on the river.
i mean i was practically getting ready to muck my hand on the river before he even acted.

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I could not possibly see a good player raise the turn with KK here as if a good player intends to milk his fullhouse for full value, he would call and then pop you on the river.

Lawrence

[AEKDBet]

Well he still could have KK here, but you're right Lawrence that with posistion he would just stick it to you on the river.

It seems to me that he is getting value from what he thinks is the best hand, and more clearly determining what he is up against. Signs point to AK. I would bet 800-1200 on the river and hope for a call.

[quix0tic]

I can't see most good players checking the flop either with AK but he did it. If this was omaha I can see the river check - call. But its hold em and full houses are quite rare. I think you definitely bet the river and then you can worry and kings if you get raised. Check calling is good for catching bluffs, not for getting value from a hand. As diablo said, you should make a river bet of the size you would be willing to check call. Compare the EV of each line:

1) Bet half pot and get called on river by AA AK and raised by KK. Make half pot bet maybe 60% of the time (just my guess). Lose half pot bet maybe 40% when he has KK.
EV=+.2 river bets

2) Check and call . He checks behind 60% and you win nothing (besides the pot) with AK AA. He bets half pot with KK (40%) and you call, losing you a half pot bet.
EV=-.4 river bets.

This is obviously an oversimplification but I believe it is fundamentally sound. I understand the urge to check call with deep stacks to keep the pot small. This just isnt a good spot for it.