pretty simple question

lighterjobs · #1 12-21-2005, 03:22 AM

this is a situation i've been coming across as i move up limits and am stealing blinds more often. i'll just have a simple continuation bet on the flop and then catch some kind of draw on the turn. in these spots should i peel or keep betting? here is a situation. let's say opponent has normal lag stats.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
6 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

silkyslim · #2 12-21-2005, 03:26 AM

id bet, you ight get him to fold and if he raises its not so bad, you will rivr a royal

ackid · #3 12-21-2005, 03:56 AM

I thought the standard was always checking in these situations.

From the "checking with outs section" in HFAP.

silkyslim · #4 12-21-2005, 04:10 AM

basically checking gives him infinte odds to chase what could be a 4 outer. it would be different if you let him call incorectly but just giving him a free card is awful. and, if he raises, its no big deal with tis monster draw. i dont have pokerstove but your equity is fairly high

SNOWBALL138 · #5 12-21-2005, 06:55 AM

How many hands can you name that call this flop that hero is ahead of?

Hero has an ace, so that reduces the probability that villain has an overcard draw. Do you think villain calls this flop with QJ?

I think you're getting checkraised here pretty often, and when you're not you are getting called by a better hand. You have way the worst of it on a bet here. Sure you have between 12 and 18 outs, but that still makes you a dog.

I don't really care about giving a non-pair hand infinite odds on 4 outs. 4 outs isn't worth that much in a 3bb pot. We're usually behind and the pot is small. We don't have anything to protect, and buying a free showdown is almost worthless.

silkyslim · #6 12-21-2005, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How many hands can you name that call this flop that hero is ahead of?

Hero has an ace, so that reduces the probability that villain has an overcard draw. Do you think villain calls this flop with QJ?

I think you're getting checkraised here pretty often, and when you're not you are getting called by a better hand. You have way the worst of it on a bet here. Sure you have between 12 and 18 outs, but that still makes you a dog.

I don't really care about giving a non-pair hand infinite odds on 4 outs. 4 outs isn't worth that much in a 3bb pot. We're usually behind and the pot is small. We don't have anything to protect, and buying a free showdown is almost worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]
omg on a blind steal? you want to check behind and fold to a bet? basically letting villain bluff you out with any 2 cards?? i think this is awful. he will call his BB and call a flop bet automatically with sooooo many hands just waiting to spike a pair or complete his 65 runner runner straight. i think this is an easy bet/call.

lighterjobs · #7 12-21-2005, 03:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How many hands can you name that call this flop that hero is ahead of?

Hero has an ace, so that reduces the probability that villain has an overcard draw. Do you think villain calls this flop with QJ?

I think you're getting checkraised here pretty often, and when you're not you are getting called by a better hand. You have way the worst of it on a bet here. Sure you have between 12 and 18 outs, but that still makes you a dog.

I don't really care about giving a non-pair hand infinite odds on 4 outs. 4 outs isn't worth that much in a 3bb pot. We're usually behind and the pot is small. We don't have anything to protect, and buying a free showdown is almost worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]
omg on a blind steal? you want to check behind and fold to a bet? basically letting villain bluff you out with any 2 cards?? i think this is awful. he will call his BB and call a flop bet automatically with sooooo many hands just waiting to spike a pair or complete his 65 runner runner straight. i think this is an easy bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm going to have to agree. i think any lag at 10/20 will bet this river no matter what it is if i check behind on the turn.

SNOWBALL138 · #8 12-21-2005, 05:09 PM

Villain is calling the flop with 65? Is that supposed to be humorous? There is a *big* difference between being in this betting sequence on a nine high flop and being in it on a king high flop.

K high makes it an either/or flop. Either villain has something and will call a flop bet and see the river or villain has nothing and will fold. Assuming villain is on a backdoor 2 pair draw is not good hand reading.

#9 12-22-2005, 05:40 PM

it has been mentioned several times that the pot is small so you are not getting paid to draw. isn't this always the case in a blind steal that the pot is small. I know it is necessary to be aggressive in steal situations but it presents the question of how often you want to steal because you will never be winning a big pot

#10 12-22-2005, 05:50 PM

Spontaniously I'd say check. Seems like he is calling down a seven or a deuce or is waiting to checkraise with a king. There are no draws whatsoever so it's better to check. You can also gain one extra bet if you spike a diamond on the river if he holds a seven and bets for value on the river (which would not have happened if you had bet the turn).