Can I peel flop here?

[DeathDonkey]

15/30 full online. I raise UTG+1 with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folded to preflop LAG postflop passive button who coldcalls. BB now 3 bets - he is tight TAG like 20/4 we both call.

Flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and BB bets.

-DeathDonkey

[hobbsmann]

maybe I'm missing something, but this looks like a really easy peel.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe I'm missing something, but this looks like a really easy peel.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's much closer than that. Hero has a gutshot and two overs. Our overs could be dominated by the 20/4's three-bet and could have reverse implied odds associated to them. While a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] won't necessarily give someone a flush, it will set up redraws. Although there is no reason to fear a flush draw, it does decrease our equity. We're subject to redraws from 99/TT. Finally another thing to consider is that a turn J setups a redraw for AK and JJ. We're immediately getting 10.5:1 but we aren't closing the action. I think this is a fold but it's close to being close.

I think this is a fold too. Factoring in the range of hands that could be beating a K/Q should it come, so only 3 reliable outs - and the flush redraws etc I'd guesstimate working odds at something like 15/1. Easy fold for me. I don't like the raise for a free card on that board, either.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
No, it's much closer than that. Hero has a gutshot and two overs. Our overs could be dominated by the 20/4's three-bet and could have reverse implied odds associated to them. While a won't necessarily give someone a flush, it will set up redraws. Although there is no reason to fear a flush draw, it does decrease our equity. We're subject to redraws from 99/TT. Finally another thing to consider is that a turn J setups a redraw for AK and JJ. We're immediately getting 10.5:1 but we aren't closing the action. I think this is a fold but it's close to being close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jason hit the nail on the head and this is a fold and is exaclty what I did; great job Jason.

With such a low PFR (4%) from the BB, my overcards are out the window. The cold caller wasn't a total moran, he stats were something like 40/25/0.9 therefore he likely had a hand that falls in or around this flop. Both players I had nearly 5k hands on.

This hand went to a showdown, the button raised the flop and the BB called. Turn was J-offsuit it was checked through and the river w/Q, BB bet w/AK and button called w/AT.

[DeathDonkey]

Your play might be good but your memory is terrible. I don't even have it in front of me, but BB 3 bet the flop with AKo! He then bet the Jack turn and the river Q and sucked out on button's ATs. Button threw a mini hissy fit.

-DeathDonkey

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Your play might be good but your memory is terrible. I don't even have it in front of me, but BB 3 bet the flop with AKo! He then bet the Jack turn and the river Q and sucked out on button's ATs. Button threw a mini hissy fit.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

That's very unlike me to not recall action as my memory is the opposite. I must have been too busy responding to your IM telling you why I folded. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[PokerBob]

nope

[Chris Daddy Cool]

getting 10.5-1 immediately with a passive behind me i'm peeling.

[Jeff W]