55 SB hand

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
His stats suggest loose passive. Your description suggest the same thing. Just because he bets ragged boards doesn't mean he doesn't have anything. There's a good chance he's on a draw, but he has 15 outs to beat you. Theres also a good chance he has a better pp. And then ofcourse, he may have a Jack or a nine. You're either a bit ahead or way behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I said he bet ragged boards, I should've clarified that I raised PF, and he bet into me on the flop & turn on a K55x board, then check/folded the river. He check/folded another river after C/R'ing the turn.
I also thought there was a chance he could fold a 9 given that he wasn't a big postflop calling station.

I agree that I'm either slightly ahead or way behind. I thought it might be worth it to increase my equity by folding UTG's likely OC's even if CO has me beat more often than not.
We obviously disagree about how often I'm ahead, but I guess I'm wondering how often I have to be ahead to make this play since I suck at math.