Folding TPTK+Gutshot getting 10-1

thesharpie · #1 12-06-2005, 06:18 AM

Villain 65/9 over 30 hands.

Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 folds, MP raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, MP caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.00 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.00 BB.

gehrig · #2 12-06-2005, 06:30 AM

youre getting the right odds to peel against even a nightmare hand range

this guys a retard though so you should be calling down UI. dont fold good hands HU against retards in big pots unless theyre super passive and even then dont always

Nick C · #3 12-06-2005, 06:41 AM

Hmm, let's see.

If he's got AA, you have 2 outs to a win and 6-8 outs to a chop. So let's call that a little over 5 outs.

Versus KK, you've got 2 outs to a win and 2 outs to a chop. So that's 3 outs.

Versus QQ-TT, you have 4 outs to a win and 4 outs to a chop for 6 outs. Versus 88 you have 3-4 outs to a win and 3-4 outs to a chop.

Versus AK, you're in huge trouble but have 2-3 outs to a chop, so long as Villain doesn't already have a royal that he's planning to show to the table after you fold.

Versus 99, you have 3-4 outs to a win and two outs to a chop.

On some cards (like the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) you run the risk of either getting bluffed out on the river or losing another bet, depending on your plan. (And, versus this opponent I doubt you have any bluffing outs.)

I probably would have peeled, but I think I prefer your fold.

Edit: If Villain has been playing like a LAG postflop, though, then I agree with gehrig and think you should call down.

MATT111 · #4 12-06-2005, 08:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain 65/9 over 30 hands .

[/ QUOTE ]
Easy call

MrWookie47 · #5 12-06-2005, 11:43 AM

I think I agree. What's most surprising to me is that we're hoping villain has a set instead of an overpair. There aren't very many situations like that [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]. We even have to further discount our outs beyond what you did to account for the times when villain has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A (2/3 of the time, so we lose 2/3 of an out in that situation), K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K (half the time, costing us half an out in that situation), or 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 (same as KK). We have reverse implied odds. There isn't a lot we can profitably raise, and we may end up paying off if we hit.

I think this is a good fold.

#6 12-06-2005, 12:25 PM

Villain seems to be playing like he has AA or KK, maybe JJ. Let's assume our A outs are bad and our Q outs are good, and the gutshot is good. In this case, we have 6 outs, giving us 9:1. If villain has QQ, we are only playing for a split pot, so that gives us 2 outs. If villain has JJ then we have 4 outs. We are drawing dead to AK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Despite the math, I'm wanting to get this to showdown and see if MHIG.

POKhER · #7 12-06-2005, 12:33 PM

Wait till river to fold for me.

Didnt ponder on it much, U dont have half an hour to analyse a hand at the table(New form of grunching im doing).

wackjob · #8 12-06-2005, 12:49 PM

gehrig's advice is good. I'm not folding here.