Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside

[TripleH68]

I'd be happy to supply you with more stats, but I really don't see how you can predict winrate from W$SD alone?

[solidswede]

I can't predict win rate. But I believe it will tell us if we are running good or bad. I.e. if your winning % at showdown is 60% and you are losing there would be significant leaks in your game. So I'm trying to find at what % do you have to be in order to make money and what rate is sustainable. I think this would be huge when you try a higher limit, since most of us try to move up with a short br. So basically I'm trying to find a point where you go from saying I'm having bad luck to my game can't beat this limit.

So could I possibly just be going through the worst breakeven streak to start someone's poker career? I seem to do ok with the few hands I posted (I'll post more), and besides the fact that I fold too much on the river, all my stats seem to be in line with everyone else.

The only thing I've been thinking is that I might hold on to my cards too long..meaning, I might call a turn bet knowing that I'm beat unless I get a miracle card on the river, causing my fold % on the river to be high?

Any other thoughts?

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow! Should my AG be this high? 3.1 river AG. Maybe I am way to passive.

What are the "ideal" AG numbers by street for 1/2, 2/4?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, IMO this guy's river aggresion is way too high.

Also I'd like to add a general note for the OP. It might be benificial to cut out some your marginal holdings preflop (the Axs in EP, the small pairs in EP, etc.) in an attempt to bring down your VPIP into the 16-18 range until you are comfortable when and why some these marginal holds are profitable. Although it could be you plays these hands fine and have some other major leaks with another group of hands. From your first hand example it could be possible that you are consisently over playing big cards when you don't flop pairs (this probably contributes to your high aggro numbers).

[solidswede]

No there are leaks to your game based on the 34k hands, with the won $ wsf at 37.44 and winning % at showdown at 56.06%. Based on that I think you should have won more.
good luck.

Calling the BB on the turn when you need a "miracle" card
could certainly be contributing to your breakeven state if,
by miracle card, you are referring to a card where you lack
the proper implied odds to make the call.

If you did this on 1% of your hands (which I recognize is
probably a bit high), it could have cost you a fair bit.

Assuming you lost all the hands requiring a miracle card,
you would have been +700 for having folded when you lacked
the odds to call.

Allowing for the fact that you probably hit the card occasionally,
maybe 15/350, and won an 8BB pot each time, you'd still be
+430 for having not made the turn calls.

I had a similar leak at 1/2 where I was overestimating the
eventual pot size so that I would have the implied odds I
needed to call on the turn; when I stopped, my BB/100
started to inflate and in short order I was doing well at
2/4.

[sweetjazz]

Preflop could use a bit more raising, but that's something that can come later in your development. It's also possible that a large amount of your low winrate can be attributed to variance, though it's also possible that only a negligible amount is due to variance.

The main thing I am concerned about is your postflop play. The best way to work on it is to post hands here in the SS forum and to read other hands and try commenting on them. (Don't worry if you're wrong and don't take any criticisms of your ideas personally.)

Your aggression factor is high. On the one hand, that is encouraging -- tight and aggressive is the way to go. But at the same time, you may be raising or folding when you should be calling. It's hard to tell without seeing hands. You could be overplaying overcards or you could be folding weak draws when you have odds to hit them. You could also be folding too much on the river. In general, you should usually end up seeing more than 31% of showdowns and win less than 56% of showdowns. (Winning less frequently can still result in a higher winrate.) But you cannot approach the game by artificially seeing more showdowns, you have to study your game and see where you might be making incorrect folds.

I can't say what is happening without watching you play or at least seeing some hands you have played. So post the ones that you seem most confused about. Keep reviewing hand histories from your sessions to learn from and keep trying to match the concepts in the various poker books (SSHE, TOP, etc.) to the games you are playing in.

[Soviet Exile]

[ QUOTE ]
Your folded to river bet is insanely high.

[/ QUOTE ]

This, I think, is the only thing you need to work on. It will have a huge impact. Once you get used to showing down some marginal hands magical things happen. Trust me.

[Harv72b]

I skimmed through the other replies but didn't read them all word for word, so apologies if I'm restating a point that someone else has already made.

On the surface, your (overall) stats look good. Your VPIP is right in the sweet spot, your PFR is a tad low but not terribly so. You're folding just a tad too often postflop, but again those numbers aren't far off the norm. And your postflop AF is very good.

I believe the problem lies in the fact that these are all pretty good stats for a small stakes game, like 2/4 or 3/6. You're playing 1/2 full, which is generally a loose passive orgy. Your VPIP should probably be a bit higher than 18 (the 20 number over your last 6k hands is closer to what I'd like to play in a game like that); your VPIP from the SB should be higher than 27-ish (complete with any 2 suited in a 1:2 blind structure, and given how loose most 1/2 tables play, you can probably complete with unsuited connectors most times as well).

Raise your big hands preflop more often, because you are usually going to the flop with a sizeable equity edge over the field as a whole. Also, you should be raising from LP with good multiway hands behind several limpers (things like JTs). Again, you usually have an equity edge, and your typical 1/2 opponent will happily pay off with anything even remotely resembling a hand when you hit.

What really worries me, though, is the way your postflop AF breaks down. It's all bass-ackwards. Your flop aggression should be the highest of the three numbers, with a small decline on the turn and a relatively significant drop in your river aggression. The fact that your aggression follows an opposite course suggests that:

1) You are slowplaying too often.
2) You are trying too many bluffs/semibluffs vs. the calling stations at 1/2.
3) You are folding reasonable draws to flop/turn bets too often.

Any of these deficiencies. is a pretty big leak; if you're guilty of all three then that would put a huge crimp on your win rate.

As others suggested, post more hands where you're not sure about your play. The three that you did post in this thread all looked good given the limit you're playing. Following along with the session reviews on the micro forum is also an excellent suggestion.

The answer to the question you posed in the thread title is simple: if you don't enjoy poker anymore, quit. But if you do enjoy the game and are willing to continue making the effort to improve, a 35k hand breakeven streak shouldn't even cause quitting to become an option.

Thank you for the great reply.

When I first started my poker career, my PFR was extremely low so it is skewing the numbers a bit. The 6k stats are much more like what I currently play at.

After looking over your three possible reasons, I think that #2 is definitely the cause. After thinking about my play, I've safely ruled out #1.

#3 is also a possibility to some degree, especially in my entire 35k hand sample. However, I have gotten ALOT better at calculating odds. Although I still do not do it as religously as I should, I definitely figure them out on drawing hands.

Now to #2. This has got to be it. Say I have AK and the flop comes with rags, how far do you push? What if you have KK and an A comes?

Stuff like that.

I've had a bunch of interesting hands tonight but they have been on Prima (no hand converter) and Multipoker 9 max since no full games are running.

Also, I do not think that the $1/$2 games are very loose at all. Especially at some of the smaller sights, and even at some the X-skins, flop %'s are usually in the high 20's, low 30's.

Much different from when I first started playing.

Since I depend on bonuses for so much of my play, I'm always playing at different sites. Especially while clearing bonuses at $1/$2, i find that many of the people are typical ABC poker players who are clearing the bonus just like me. Theoretically, I would t hink that 2/4 would be much easier.

I'm way overbankrolled for 2/4 thanks to casinos but I would like to fix at least some of the major leaks in my game before I move up.