AA - Interesting Flop

compsolv · #1 08-18-2004, 05:43 PM

The Button player has proven to be tight/aggressive.

Who calls this all-in? Did I create this nightmare with the 200 chip bet?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed)

SB (t595)
BB (t615)
UTG (t560)
UTG+1 (t750)
MP1 (t840)
MP2 (t760)
MP3 (t695)
Hero (t1610)
Button (t1575)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t80, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t80, Hero raises to t400, Button calls t400, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls t320, MP3 folds.

Flop: (t1325) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t200, Button raises to t1175 (All-In), UTG calls t160 (All-In)

golFUR · #2 08-18-2004, 05:57 PM

Yikes, quite a situation you've got here...

My first guess is that you are still ahead in the hand. I don't like the 200 chip bet but you are right in that you are either folding this on the flop or going all in.

Upon further consideration my second guess is that you just might not be... Durn.

You hope button has AK, you suspect he has QQ or KK. UTG exact same but less of a worry. If UTG beats you but you beat button, you are fine.

Given the amount in the pot, given your pocket, given what you suspect about the button... it depends entirely on how comfortable you are losing a SnG. If you are determined to win you fold and wait for better. If you don't mind putting all your chips in with the best of it and hoping... All in on the flop to push out AK. If there is an AT out there they are a lucky idiot. If button has a set already you have draws.

It is said about some hands that "he was losing that no matter what." Short stack gets KK, big stack at the table has AA, its a train wreck waiting to happen. That is true in most cases the expression is used, it fails to take into account the person willing to fold the best hand in return for guaranteeing future hands. It seems as if you have either the best hand or a decent chance at ending up with the best hand, what you have to answer for yourself is, is best hand enough for me? This is a dangerous flop which you might just walk away from in order to leave yourself enough chips to come back at it later...

Dominic · #3 08-18-2004, 06:26 PM

Wow...tough flop!

I think this is an easy laydown. Tough to do, but really, what are the odds you're ahead right now?

You raise to 400 preflop and both the button and UTG smooth call you. Why UTG doesn't move all in here, I don't know...

After the flop, let's not worry about UTG...doesn't matter what he has...if you were just up against him you're flop bet put him all-in, so what he has is irrelevant - either you win the pot or he does.

But the Button...let's break this down...he smooth calls your pre-flop bet...so either he's got AK or a PP that didn't warrant a re-raise...so unless he's the type to slow-play AA or KK, he more than likely has JJ or QQ...I guess it's possible he has a lower PP and he wants to see a flop...but that's an awfully expensive call for less than a premium hand.

I put him on JJ or QQ.

On the flop you make a weak stab at a 1300 pot with 200...that was your first mistake...because now the Button moves all-in and he could literally have anything at this point - maybe he flopped a straight, 2 pair, a set - or is just betting you're going to lay it down after such a weak bet.

Now the UTG calls all-in...again, not really that big a deal, but still...he must have some of that flop, right? I think it's 50-50 you're ahead of UTG at this point.

But you're faced with putting almost all of your stack at risk now because of the Button's bet.

What could he have that you are ahead of? You've already said he's TAG...so....

AQ? But if he's a TAG, he folds this pre-flop without a thought.
TT - although how he smooth calls a 400 bet pre-flop with TT is beyond me...if he's really a TAG, he either folds this or comes over the top of you pre-flop.

QJ, KJ,KQ, AT...I don't think he's smooth calling with these hands, either. But if he is, you're still beat.

I guess it's possible he has AA or KK but again, you've stated he's a TAG and a TAG would almost definitely come over the top of you pre-flop with one of these hands.

That leaves us with only one hand that he could reasonably have that you're ahead of at this point - AK.

So basically, there's three hands you could reasonably assume he's going to smooth call you with pre-flop - AK,
QQ, JJ...I guess it's up to you to decide whether or not you think it's worth calling your whole stack on the possibility he has AK and nothing else...

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

hope this helps!

compsolv · #4 08-18-2004, 06:38 PM

The more I look at it - the more I hate my bet of 200 chips post flop . . .my question is - what is the correct play at that stage???? . . .it seems to me that it is . . .
ALL IN or FOLD.

Dominic · #5 08-18-2004, 07:06 PM

You fold.

You've still got $1000 left...you aren't pot-committed...fold. Why put your whole SNG on the line for a hand I'm almost positive you're going to have to come from behind to win?

So what did you do? And what did the Button have?

tallstack · #6 08-18-2004, 07:14 PM

IMO, I don't think there is any way that you will win the pot with your bet there. You played the PF well and you just ran into a terrible flop. It had to hit your opponents hands at least somewhat and you will have to go all-in for any chance for the button to fold.

FWIW, I think I would favour the check and fold to an all-in from the button. It sounds pretty weak, but you still have the chips to do some damage if you fold here. Almost any hand that would cold call your large PF raise (KK, QQ, JJ, AK) should have hit this flop hard. The only reasonable hand that you would be ahead of here is AK. You are even behind the maniacs who would call with KQ and QJ.

One other thing, UTG has already checked the flop and if the button hit trips on this flop, he may check to keep you in (I wouldn't, but some might). If you could get a free card here, you do have 2 aces and 4 tens that would give you the likely best hand.

Dave S

thomastem · #7 08-18-2004, 07:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]

So basically, there's three hands you could reasonably assume he's going to smooth call you with pre-flop - AK,
QQ, JJ...I guess it's up to you to decide whether or not you think it's worth calling your whole stack on the possibility he has AK and nothing else...

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

hope this helps!

[/ QUOTE ]

To take this 1 step further since you have A-A it is more likely you are up against 1 of the big pockets than A-K. (I don't discount K-K as 1 of his holdings).

So let's assume we are behind. We have 6 outs, 2 aces and 4 tens. Short stack may have 1 or 2 of these outs. At 6 outs you are a 4-1 dog and at 4 outs around 10-1.

Do you like your pot odds?

Added: You are actually a bigger dog than these odds as you may get the straight and still lose to a boat.

Dominic · #8 08-18-2004, 07:47 PM

Exactly...which is why I fold.

patrick dicaprio · #9 08-18-2004, 07:53 PM

against a good player this is an easy fold. but if this is a $10 it wouldnt surprise me to see AK or even something like KT. one reason not to bet on the flop is that with this flop your opponent could play a naked draw aggressively and you dont want to be run off the hand if you are good. it wouldnt even surprise me to see 89s against some players at this level.

i would almost ceratinly fold here, but the above is just food for thought.

Pat

compsolv · #10 08-18-2004, 11:53 PM

Here is the full story - as always thanks for all of the wonderful insight. I went on to finish first . . .and actually had two more extrememly interesting hands in the Tourney that I will have to post. Thanks Again!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed)

SB (t595)
BB (t615)
UTG (t560)
UTG+1 (t750)
MP1 (t840)
MP2 (t760)
MP3 (t695)
Hero (t1610)
Button (t1575)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t80, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t80, Hero raises to t400, Button calls t400, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls t320, MP3 folds.

Flop: (t1325) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t200, Button raises to t1175 (All-In), UTG calls t160 (All-In), Hero folds.

Turn: (t2860) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t2860) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t2860

Results in white below: 
UTG shows Ks Ac (straight, ace high).
Button shows Jc Jd (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: UTG wins t1805. Button wins t1055.