Getting Cute

[PokerBob]

Canterbury 30/60 9 handed
MP opens. Not too much is known about him, but he does not appear to be a complete fool. folds to hero in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero calls.

Flop (2 players)(4.67SB): Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.

Turn (2 players) (4.33BB): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets.....thoughts?

[lil feller]

Seems hopeless. You have the A of clubs, so whats he calling the turn with thats folding the river thats currently beating you? AK w/ the king of clubs? I honestly don't see TT folding the river here, but you never know I guess.

lf

[Lestat]

As a general rule, I dislike the tired old mantra "Well, I had to bet because it's the only way I could win"....

But in this particular case, checking clearly can't be right so if betting is wrong, it is LESS wrong. I actually don't mind being called down here and showing AJ. It's the next best thing to getting called and winning. You should be able to profit from this later if you're slick.

[climber]

This is where I roll my eyes and shrug as I reach for the bet button. Guess its a good thing i don't play live.

I would have like this line better if you 3-bet PF. Of course, then it's a totally different line. I need to get some [censored] sleep man.


Tex

[JasonP530]

Calling is much better than 3 betting. You can represent a wider range and get him to fold some hands you want him to after the flop(88,AK,AJ,77 etc.). If you 3 bet, most of these hands are calling you down on that board. When you 3 bet this hand, he is essentially scared of where your hand range is, which allows him to play pretty correctly.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
As a general rule, I dislike the tired old mantra "Well, I had to bet because it's the only way I could win"....

But in this particular case, checking clearly can't be right so if betting is wrong, it is LESS wrong. I actually don't mind being called down here and showing AJ. It's the next best thing to getting called and winning. You should be able to profit from this later if you're slick.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand. Is this bet ever getting called by a worse hand? I don't think so. Then how often is it making a better hand fold? JJ or TT never fold here, will they? How often does AK fold? 30%, 40%, 80%? I really have no idea how to guess this.

I think this is one of those situations, however, that can't be evaluated in black/white terms. Betting this river every time can't be optimal, and neither can checking it, can it?

lf

[Lestat]

<font color="blue">I'm not sure I understand. Is this bet ever getting called by a worse hand? </font>

I'm not disagreeing with you, but a better question is: Would a better hand EVER fold? It sure won't be often, but at this point in the hand, who cares? At least give him the chance to make that mistake.

The idea is to not get into this situation in the first place. Maybe we shouldn't be looking to outplay a good player. But once we get to the river.... I'm not a big fan of just giving up. It's a small tragedy if a guy's calling the turn with JJ or TT hoping to improve and would've folded the river after he misses AND the flush got there. It's only one bet. Worst case is you're caught speeding. I'm sure hero can take advantage of this later.

[SA125]

The 9c fit like a glove with the flop Qc8c, so his turn call doesn't narrow it down that much. But your river bet will get exactly one better hand to fold - AKo - which he might have folded on the turn without the Kc.

Like Lestat said, this play is fine for metagame once in a while to keep the tricky label, but I doubt a better hand folds here.

I would just muck the flop getting 5:1 and not holding a good hand. Why bother playing on.