So who bets this river?

[whodaman]

i would check.....
If MP2 has top pair on the flop he just rivered us
If MP2 had a diamond draw... which i think is very likely given the cold call on the turn, we are beat...
Of course a lot of this depends on exactly how bad mp2 and BB are... is mp2 calling down with A6 here? if you dont know... i would check....
This is probably one of the worst river cards in the deck

[Eric P]

I like betting cause, while it looks like you lost on the river, MP2 seems terrible enough to just call with either of the hands that just got there, and you have shown so much strength that it looks like you might even have made a full house. So i doubt either person is going to raise you, but it would stink to leave a bet on the table when you still win (maybe 2 bets, in fact likely two bets).

The only thing would be if you check, MP bets and then BB raises then you could fold without really thinking much about it. Sucks when the worst card comes out...

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
i would check.....
If MP2 has top pair on the flop he just rivered us
If MP2 had a diamond draw... which i think is very likely given the cold call on the turn, we are beat...
Of course a lot of this depends on exactly how bad mp2 and BB are... is mp2 calling down with A6 here? if you dont know... i would check....
This is probably one of the worst river cards in the deck

[/ QUOTE ]

Good call mikey! Mp2 called down with A6. You might make a decent poker player yet [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[siegfriedandroy]

would it be horrible to wait till the turn to raise? still trying to get that SSHE concept straight...if incorrect, what conditions are missing here?

[elindauer]

Interesing. Here's what I'm thinking:

MP2 calls 3 cold, then he calls 2 cold, then he calls 2 cold again. I actually think he could have KK/AA along with AKd / AQd. I can't put him on any hand we can beat.

If you intend to call a raise, you have to check. It's way too likely that MP2 just got there and you will be faced with a raise. Check and call 1 instead.

If you can fold to a raise, then you might be able to bet, on the theory that you should pick up the value from the times you are ahead instead of having them check behind.

But... that assumes that you can't check and fold, which... I guess you can't. Can you? Man, how can you beat MP2 at this point?

I don't think I can check and fold, but I can bet and fold, so I bet. I think check calling is an option if you can't stand the idea of folding to a raise, especially since this guy is an unknown and the pot is pretty big, and bet / folding is an option.

-Eric

[whodaman]

yes it would be horrible...
you need to protect your hand... you dont want gutters to draw for 1 bet....
if an A,K,9,7,8 or diamond fall you have to be pretty scared

[ggbman]

Yeah, i like your analysis a lot Eric. It's much closer than many people have made it to be. As it happens, i value bet and was called by 2 worse hands, however bet/folding rivers in 25BB pots with overpairs is not a good idea like you said.

Gabe

[hakeem]

Let me start by saying I have alot of respect for your games and your post Eric, but I'm not following you on your hand reading here. I don't think there is any chance of MP2 having AA, KK or even AKd given the preflop and turn here. UTG raised, UTG+1 3bet, and MP2 just called knowing for sure that at a minimum UTG and UTG+1 will call. AQd is possible, but man this is questionable after UTG and UTG+1 have both raised.

The only indication that he may be on AQd is his cold call of the flop, but by the turn, how is AA/KK not 3betting this? This is about as prime an opportunity as he will get to knock out CO and make BB and UTG+1 call with inferior hands (he has no idea that CO will fold anyway). The only thing I have him on here is something like 77/88 with a gutshot draw and a PP which he thinks might be reasonable.

I think your river logic is totally sound and I would agree to do the exact same thing. This top-paired river + flush draw is about as bad as they get, and I'm going to have a hard time folding to a raise so I would check/call here as well, purely because I have no idea what BB is holding and could easily have spiked trips or a flush here.

Just my $0.02, the fact that he had A6 is scary unless he also had the Ad on the flop (then it's still slightly scary).

[elindauer]

hi hakeem,

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there is any chance of MP2 having AA, KK or even AKd given the preflop and turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, let me clarify a bit. What I'm really saying is that normally, you couldn't put someone on a hand this big who has never raised. I'm simply saying that with so much action in front on this guy on every street, if he's a little passive but tricky he might just have one of these hands.

With AKs, calling 3 cold preflop is not that hrad to imagine. Lots of people think of AK as a drawing hand, and when it's 3 cold to them, they just want to call. Yes, most people would raise, but not everyone.

And some people just like to get tricky with aces. The other day I saw someone check the big blind with aces after two limpers and a SB complete! Of course, you would expect someone to cap AA/KK when it's 3 cold to them, but you do see the occassional call.


[ QUOTE ]
by the turn, how is AA/KK not 3betting this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking that all the action may have caused him to get gunshy at the critical moment. Maybe he should 3-bet those hands, but with lots of strength from two other players, he just figured he'd show down his 1 pair.

Again, not likely. Just putting the river value bet in context that there are so many hands we now lose to.

[ QUOTE ]
Just my $0.02, the fact that he had A6 is scary unless he also had the Ad on the flop (then it's still slightly scary).

[/ QUOTE ]

He called 3 cold preflop and showed A6. I just think... cha-ching! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Eric