Pocket AA

waynethetrain · #1 10-10-2005, 06:23 PM

MP1 VPIP 42 Preflop Raise 5.25
MP3 VPIP 47 Preflop Raise 5.25

No other reads.

The flop cap by MP1 when it was two bets to him made it seem very likley that my AA was beat.

When the 7 came on the turn, it became at least possible that my two pair had just moved ahead of someone elses two pair.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 folds, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (14.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB

turaho · #2 10-10-2005, 07:21 PM

You know your opponents are pretty loose-passive preflop... how are they postflop? Could MP1 be making this play with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

The river is a crying-overcall given the size of the pot. You can hope that MP1 was just being aggressive with his flush draw and MP3 thinks his J is good, but I think MP1 flips over 66 more often than not here.

#3 10-10-2005, 08:22 PM

I think the call on the river is correct. With a such a large pot you have to hold the winning hand only about 6% of the time. This means you have to read him for a FH or a 7 with 94% certainty. I'm not sure if you can ever read anyone with such an accuracy. There is a great chance that he is bluffing if he missed a flush draw, for it is his only chance to win this large pot and it does cost him only one more bet. The other caller will very likely hold a jack or maybe 7 but i don't think he'd raise this flop into a preflop raiser with only a 7. Also he would have raised the turn or river then. He could also have a missed straight or flush draw. So i'm pretty sure you have him beaten.
If the pot were small you could consider folding the turn, but the pot is way too large to do this.

shadow29 · #4 10-10-2005, 08:37 PM

Anyone want to discuss alternate flop/turn lines?

bozlax · #5 10-10-2005, 08:44 PM

Like, say, call the flop raise since you're not going to fold anybody and then pop a "safe" turn? Problem is, you're not going to be able to protect, anywhere, and the flop is likely to be capped, regardless of Hero's action. What does not 3-betting gain us?

shadow29 · #6 10-10-2005, 08:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Like, say, call the flop raise since you're not going to fold anybody and then pop a "safe" turn? Problem is, you're not going to be able to protect, anywhere, and the flop is likely to be capped, regardless of Hero's action. What does not 3-betting gain us?

[/ QUOTE ]

dunno, that wasn't a "question" it was a question.

the problem is that you don't know that it's going to get capped when it's your turn to act on the flop.

but now that i think about it, it looks like the best odds you'll give to someone are like 8:1 AND you're last to act on the turn (assuming best odds).

but how much would our equity spike on a safe turn card?

dunno.

bozlax · #7 10-10-2005, 08:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but how much would our equity spike on a safe turn card?

[/ QUOTE ]

That really depends on what we're up against, now doesn't it? Do we count the 7 as "safe"? (FWIW, against a tighter player I would, against a couple of LAGs, now way.) OP, what were the PAF numbers on these two dumbasses?

I think you've gotta go ahead and get your money in while you're most likely to be ahead. Call down if it doesn't get too bad once the flop's been capped behind you.

lautzutao · #8 10-10-2005, 09:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone want to discuss alternate flop/turn lines?

[/ QUOTE ]

What other flop lines do we have? If two people are betting/raising into us the only alternatives we have on the flop are raising or folding, and I'm not down for folding. The turn however...

I might have raised the turn with that 7 coming up though. Somebody could have been betting a scrubby 2-pair on the flop, and now they've been counterfeited yes? Of course they could have been betting the J7, 76 on the flop as well; not to mention a potential set. Problem is I don't know if raising that turn gains us anything...if we're beat we get 3-bet and we probably have to fold. Maybe calling down was best here...

silkyslim · #9 10-10-2005, 09:08 PM

what is your question??? you played it goot.

shadow29 · #10 10-10-2005, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you've gotta go ahead and get your money in while you're most likely to be ahead. Call down if it doesn't get too bad once the flop's been capped behind you.

[/ QUOTE ]

ya i agree