Online Poker : 75% of loosers

[lozen]

Most say there winners bur are not. If you told me your a online winner. I would ask you how much did you make or loose on June 30th 2004. If you could not answer your problay loosing. No records = not winning

[speirs]

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Jackpoy Jay wrote a recent article quoting 2 separate online poker room managers saying that 7-8% of online players end the year positive.

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These indeed look more like the numbers that I was thinking about.

[speirs]

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No records = not winning

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Good one. Probably true.

[Hellmouth]

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much looser games is your reason for losing?

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If you cant beat them ... join them.

Mostly even level of skill + House rake=Likely loss

Seems pretty straightforward to me.

[OrangeKing]

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I read on a financial review that 75% of all online poker players were loosing money over time. Any comments ?

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As most people in this thread have said, that's very generous - it's probably more like 90%. In the short run, it runs more like 60/40, but most of that 40% find a way to lose in the long run.

PS: losers, not loosers [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Sniper]

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In the short run, it runs more like 60/40, but most of that 40% find a way to lose in the long run.


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The 40/60 numbers come from ring players PT stats... the 7-8% only makes sense once you account for STT and MTT players and other factors.

[WhiteWolf]

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In the short run, it runs more like 60/40, but most of that 40% find a way to lose in the long run.


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The 40/60 numbers come from ring players PT stats... the 7-8% only makes sense once you account for STT and MTT players and other factors.

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I think OrangeKing has it right... You will only have a small number of hands on most of the players in your PT database. So you will have some long term losers that went on a short-term win streak and have positive numbers in your db, and you will have some long-term winners who had a short-term bad streak and are losers in your db. Since there are so many more losers than winners, you will misclassify many more losers as winners than the other way around.

Some math to illustrate:
Assume 90% long term losers and 10% long term winners.
Assume, because of small sample size, you misclassify 1/3 of the long-term losers as winners and 1/3 of the long-term winners as losers.
The percentage of players you will classify as winners are:
(.33 * 90%) + (.67 * 10%) = 36.4%
which is suprisingly way off the true number of 10%.

[Sniper]

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You will only have a small number of hands on most of the players in your PT database. So you will have some long term losers that went on a short-term win streak and have positive numbers in your db, and you will have some long-term winners who had a short-term bad streak and are losers in your db. Since there are so many more losers than winners, you will misclassify many more losers as winners than the other way around.

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No, do some datamining and you will see for yourself that the 40/60 for ring game players holds up! These numbers, roughly, are consistantly reported by everyone.

Tournament play, where there are very few winners, brings down the aggregate numbers of poker players making an annual profit.

This sucks, up untill now I thought I was part of the 'elite 10%', and now I find out I'm only part of the 'elite 40%'

My ego is hurting [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]