Fishhooks - deep stages

sorry for the hand history...going off memory.

Partypoker $2+0 tourney: 2000 entrants, 30 left, avg. between 50k-60K.(1st pays $900+, 20th-30th pays $23)

(Cutoff) Hero: 76k
(UTG+2) villian: 220k
(UTG+1) donk: 100k
Blinds: 2k/4k

Hero is dealt J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

donk minraises to 8k.
villian reraises to 23k
Hero??

Villain had just made this play about 5 min. ago with AK. So I put him squarly on AK/AQ. I guess he could have QQ-AA but because FT is so close I felt I could gamble. Do I want a race here? Or should I find a better spot.

-I was also pretty confident he wasn't going to fold if I pushed.

[sekrah]

Stop and go. Hope rags hit. If big hits, you can get out with 13 BB.. If he has QQ+ you're probably going broke either way.

13 BB is still plenty to make a move. I don't like a push preflop.. You have no fold equity.

[fnurt]

How do you stop and go when you're the last to act?

[sekrah]

Errr..

Call and get the chips all in on the flop if it comes 10-high or lower.

You might even win some more chips if he tries to push you with Ace high.

bump for the afternoon crew.

thanks for the responses. I was thinking about just calling, but it seemed wrong to simply throw in 1/3 of my stack and hope for the best. If it came down Q/or K high, now what? He could have AK/ or AQ, respectivly, and will probably make a continuation bet. I dont want to be put into a situation where Im folding a better hand this late.

I'm actually looking to see if a push is mathematically correct, is it +ev to move in when your almost certain its a flip; at this stage, with these stacks?

Thanks again [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry for the hand history...going off memory.

Partypoker $2+0 tourney: 2000 entrants, 30 left, avg. between 50k-60K.(1st pays $900+, 20th-30th pays $23)

(Cutoff) Hero: 76k
(UTG+2) villian: 220k
(UTG+1) donk: 100k
Blinds: 2k/4k

Hero is dealt J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

donk minraises to 8k.
villian reraises to 23k
Hero??

Villain had just made this play about 5 min. ago with AK. So I put him squarly on AK/AQ. I guess he could have QQ-AA but because FT is so close I felt I could gamble. Do I want a race here? Or should I find a better spot.

-I was also pretty confident he wasn't going to fold if I pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd fold and wait for a better spot, especially since you know the reraiser to be a good player. I don't think you need this pot.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
Errr..

Call and get the chips all in on the flop if it comes 10-high or lower.

You might even win some more chips if he tries to push you with Ace high.


[/ QUOTE ]

Calling off 1/3 of your chips hoping the flop doesn't have an A, K, or Q is pretty bad in my opinion. Push preflop.

[PennDisc]

If you know he has AK-AQ then it's a push. You're somewhere along the lines of a 57-43 favorite there. Throw in the other guy's 8K and you have plenty of equity.

Problem is, you sound like you're just hoping he has AK-AQ. You've narrowed his range to QQ-AA, AK, AQ, but have no logical reason to assume he doesn't have one of the pairs. In this case it's a fold.

if you're sure it's a flip (which you can't be) it's no question a good play to go for it, 8k in dead money plus you're ahead a little anyway, it's simply +EV

[sekrah]

+TournamentChip EV.