Lay this down on the turn?

[AceKQJT]

I had been playing 10/20 at my local casino for a couple of hours, just bouncing between even and +$100. The table had been extremely loose the entire time, and every hand went to showdown.

EP raises have been getting little to no respect...and for good reason. The following UTG raising hands have been shown in the last 2 hours: 4-4, 5-5, 7-7, T-Js, Q-Jo, A-xs

So here's what went down:

I am dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the CO.

UTG calls, EP1 calls, EP2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, LP1 calls, I call, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks

FLOP: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($100)
Checked around to MP2 who bets, everyone calls

TURN: [7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] [3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($200)
Checked to MP2 who bets, called to me & I call, Button calls, SB Raises, BB folds, UTG calls, EP1 folds, EP2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 reraises, LP1 calls, I cap, SB folds, UTG calls, EP2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, LP1 calls.

RIVER: [7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($680)
Checked to me, I bet, everyone calls
I win an $800 pot with the nuts

4 players turn over a 5, for the straight. 1 player turns over a smaller flush. MP2 had 5-8o and was cussing me like a sailor (he had the NUTS on the flop, & I CAPPED the turn on a flush draw..LOL).

It didn't look like many people were going to fold to the turn action, so I thought I was getting 5-1 odds minimum. How bad was my play?

--Casey

[highlife]

raise the flop. top pair top kicker and the nut flush draw...um what were you waiting for?

turn, capping here is redic, no need. you obviously have to call the two bets coming back though.

[haakee]

I would raise preflop. If I didn't do that I would raise on the flop, you'll probably get cold-called by pretty weak holdings and your chances of winning the pot are pretty good.

Capping the turn is questionable. There's probably a set out there, so a heart that pairs the board is not good, and somebody else probably has a flush draw, reducing your # of outs.

[slavic]

First you have the best hand on the flop, and you have the best redraw on the flop with 14 outs. So you are good now and will improve 50% of the time, plus most of Southern China is still in the hand with you. Let's get a little more money in the pot. Capping is perfectly acceptable. In fact it's prefered.

Now are you folding on the turn? You are on the payment plan and that sucks but no your not folding. Capping it is not called for however.

[highlife]

now that i think about it, capping the turn here with 5 callers is right around neutral EV. its fine as long as it doesnt kill any of your river action if you hit, which it didn't in this case and usually wont in a pot this big.

seems to me your only mistake was not raising the flop, it turned out to be the eventual right move in this case, but those times when you don't hit the flush it will cost you.

[mmcd]

raise the flop. top pair top kicker and the nut flush draw...um what were you waiting for?

The bet came from his right. He has 6 loosish players still to act behind him. The pot is fairly small, so attempting to limit the field in order to try to protect his 7s isn't necessarily a huge concern here. He has a draw to the nuts. Raising certainly isn't a bad idea here, but neither is calling in an attempt to lure in random overcards/gutshots/single hearts/bare aces/etc.

The 6 loosies between you and the bettor will call 1 bet with all sorts of ridiculous hands that they would probably not call 2 cold with (especially since its a ragged flop).

[etizzle]

with 5 other people in the hand, capping is very +ev, even if an ace on the river is no good. It disguises your hand (against most players), and you are getting 5-1 on a 4-1 draw to the nuts. cap is good.

[highlife]

[ QUOTE ]
but neither is calling in an attempt to lure in random overcards/gutshots/single hearts/bare aces/etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

why give random overcards and gutshots the pot odds to draw out?

[haakee]

His hand is already "disguised" because everyone else at the table is an idiot and isn't really considering what he has. And only in the best-case scenario is he really getting 4.1:1 to hit the nuts on the river. If one other player is in there on a flush draw he's getting 5.6:1. If one other player has a set he's getting 5.6:1. If there are a combination of hands like this out there against him he's looking at much worse than 6:1.

That said, I don't think it's very -EV to cap the turn, but I'd argue that it's not +EV.

[highlife]

[ QUOTE ]
His hand is already "disguised" because everyone else at the table is an idiot and isn't really considering what he has. And only in the best-case scenario is he really getting 4.1:1 to hit the nuts on the river. If one other player is in there on a flush draw he's getting 5.6:1. If one other player has a set he's getting 5.6:1. If there are a combination of hands like this out there against him he's looking at much worse than 6:1.

That said, I don't think it's very -EV to cap the turn, but I'd argue that it's not +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

completely agree, thus as i said in my second post that it seems to be right around even money EV.