How to ask "How much will you call on the river?"

[AceKQJT]

This hypothetical hand actually from a hand I played last night. I just want to use it as an example for my main question:

Assuming you have what you KNOW is the winning hand at the river AND you believe that your single opponent has a GOOD hand AND you act first AND you know the opponent is strong enough to know he may be beat, but he probably is ahead; Would it be +EV to make a ridiculously low river bet in order to get the opponent to raise your bet to a level that he figures he would have called anyway?

I hope you can follow what I'm getting at.

So let's say you have Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . You are MP1 (T1500) and raise 3x (15/30) when it is folded to you. Folded to LP1 (T1350) holding J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], who smooth-calls. All else fold.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (T-225)
You bet T-100, He thinks....thinks...calls

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (T-425)
You bet T-200, He calls

River 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (T-725)
You bet 50???

How could anyone JUST CALL that? I mean, any hand that went that far would certainly have to raise, right? LOL Anyone who folds to that bet would have to be a complete ass. Can this be considered a "strategy"?


BTW, JJ pushed and I called LOL
--Casey

[TheGrifter]

I would just call with JJ in that spot.

[Stoneii]

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call with JJ in that spot

[/ QUOTE ]

so would I - to make it look like you're losing confidence on each street you may try what I see others do when they do have a weak hand (and are losing confidence)....

bet reasonable on flop - less on turn, even less on river. If he has no read on you he may well take that as weakness and jump all over it and - you beat him in pot [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Although I see you got the all-in anyway [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

stoneii

[fnurt]

I tend to think of a minibet as a check. If I would have checked behind, then I just call.

I'm not about to let some opponent change my behavior for the low low price of a minimum bet.

[SossMan]

Just calling w/ JJ is practically the same as checking behind.

Unless you have a read that the person is uuber aggressive and will always take a shot at what they perceive an unprotected pot, I would go ahead and make my standard value bet. Something like 3/4 the pot or 30% of their stack, something like that.

[Jason Strasser]

Casey,

I don't like it. Make a value bet, don't get cute. This player just looks like he wants to get to showdown cheap, betting 50 allowed him to do this. I guess if the player is really aggressive, you can pull this off. But to say a "good" player would make a move like this is silly. I prefer betting the flop hard, and checking the turn if you are going to get fancy.

-Jason

[AceKQJT]

LOL..
I guess it goes back to "what do I think that he thinks I have?" I thought he put me on AK, and I tried to play it in a manner that would say "I've got overcards". When He didn't come over on the turn, I figured "hell with it, let's see what he does."

No, he wasn't a Great player, but he had been playing pretty tight (passive). When he called my flop bet, I put him on an overpair, actually.

Anyway, I guess I just got so tickled when I came across the hand history, and I wondered if I had stumbled upon something worthwhile [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I think it's a very RD play, but it can work. I tend to agree with ya'll, though...value bet the end is probably the correct play.

--Casey

[tripdad]

i usually try this move on the turn, and only to a few people i play with regularly. i only do it because i KNOW they will try to "buy the pot" if i represent any weakness. so far, they haven't picked up on my little scheme, but only time will tell.

cheers!