and there inlies the rub - Page 2

#11 12-09-2005, 01:36 AM

Seems like a standard raise, call 3 bet and call river unless a major scare card hits. Im pretty sure your kings are good here, there is no reason not to think so. many players play the draw this strongly...

imported_leader · #12 12-09-2005, 01:50 AM

I either raise the turn or call and raise a safe river

LoaferGee12 · #13 12-09-2005, 02:41 AM

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my first instinct was to say [censored] yeah, raise, and cry and calldown if 3bet. but i thought about it and now i like calling and raising a safe river! holla!

[/ QUOTE ]

Ohhh I like it. He's going to continue bet this river almost everytime.

#14 12-09-2005, 03:29 AM

i would probably fold here because you're looking for a 10 giving you 4 outs. If you had the 10 and were looking for a 9 or A, I would call the bet and see what you get. Check/Fold on the river in that case.

In your case, I would fold.

Wynton · #15 12-09-2005, 09:17 AM

The only way I can figure out whether it's better to raise the turn or river is to list every possibility methodically. I'll list them, and let others decide which combination of possibilities are most likely.

villain is on a draw and misses
1. Villain is on a draw. If we raise the turn, he'll call. If we just call the turn, he may not bet or call our river bet. So we gain a bet by raising the turn.
2. Villain is on a draw. If we call the turn, he might STILL bet the river even if he misses, hoping we have nothing too. But he might not call the river then. So, this way, we make the same amount as if we had raised the turn.

villain is on a draw and makes the draw
3. If we call the turn, we will probably make a crying call on the river, rather than raise. So, by waiting to raise, we save a bet.
4. But some opponents might try for a c/r on the river if we raised the turn. We then get to decide whether to bet the river, potentially checking behind and saving money.

villain has a mediocre pair (or worse kicker)
5. If we raise the turn, he might take that as a real sign of strength and fold right there.
6. If we raise the turn, he might call that bet, as well as a river bet.
7. If we call the turn, villain may well bet a safe river AND make a crying call on the river.
8. If we call the turn, villain might bet the river, but NOT call the river raise.

Without our precious read, it is pretty hard to figure which scenario is most likely. But I think this illustrates that the decision is pretty close.

Or did I miss something?

TomBrooks · #16 12-09-2005, 11:02 AM

I would either raise or call. I don't know which is better. I'd like to go to showdown though.

PokerBob · #17 12-09-2005, 11:26 AM

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i would probably fold here

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please tell me you are kidding.

PokerBob · #18 12-09-2005, 11:33 AM

i HATE it when I get sucked out on in these sopts when somene donks a draw and i just call. i think is why my turn aggression is so high. Tolbiny IM'ed me a great explanation why raising is wrong here, but it escapes me now. Hopefully he will post it, cuz it was good.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (10.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.16 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 6d Kd (one pair, kings).
Hero has Kh Js (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.16 BB.

PokerBob · #19 12-09-2005, 11:34 AM

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EDIT: Therein, bob. Therein.

[/ QUOTE ]

whoops. English is gay.

Spicymoose · #20 12-09-2005, 03:38 PM

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i would probably fold here because you're looking for a 10 giving you 4 outs. If you had the 10 and were looking for a 9 or A, I would call the bet and see what you get. Check/Fold on the river in that case.

In your case, I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is pretty bad here. Opponents can get agressive, and we have a pretty strong hand. We easily could have the best hand, and if we don't we have plenty outs against a lot of his range.