Pot Odds Question

12Motion · #1 05-02-2003, 07:00 PM

I asked this question in the probability section but it doesn't seem like that section gets as much action as this one. So I will ask here as well. I really want to get an answere.

I just have a question about flush draws. If you flop 4 to a flush I know the odds of getting it are 1.86:1 But whats does this mean? If there is $300 in the pot and I flop 4 to the flush and a player bets the pot $300 it's correct for me to call? I am calling 300 to win a pot of 600 thats 2:1 so I am getting correct odds? Doesn't this mean that in limit hold em and pot limit hold em it's ALWAYS correct to call flush draws? Since you can never bet more then the pot?

Also whats are the odds of making a strait if you flop openended?

TobDog · #2 05-03-2003, 12:07 AM

Your math would appear correct, but, these odds are of you hitting your hand, so they are in the positive. What happens if your flush draw is not the ace high flush draw, maybe you have the T9s you could make your hand and lose to a bigger flush, or you could be up against a set or 2 pair and your opponent make a full house when you make your flush, so your actual odds of making your flush are good, you should look at the bigger picture, how likely are you to make your hand and still lose? If the odds are almost exactly what the pot offers you, then over a long time, it is an even money bet just adding fluctuations to your life.

Dynasty · #3 05-03-2003, 03:41 AM

Doesn't this mean that in limit hold em...it's ALWAYS correct to call flush draws

For 1 bet in limit hold'em, yes. If it's ever a mistake, it's such a small one that you don't need to worry about it.

In pot limit, it's not true.

Nottom · #4 05-03-2003, 11:31 AM

First thing I would note is that the 1.86:1 odds are the odds of making it by the river. So unless you are going all-in calling this bet, be careful when using this number because your going to have to pay more on the turn if you don't hit.

rkiray · #5 05-03-2003, 01:08 PM

Pot odds arn't particularly important. That is important is implied odds and they can be either larger or smaller than the pot odds. I recommend reading THFAP section on implied odds, or look in my profile for a thread with something like "Odds needed to call gutshot" for a very informative discussion (thnaks Homer). If you are just starting out trying to use odds I recommend using the pot odds to decide whether or not you have the odds needed TO WIN ON THE NEXT CARD ONLY. The rule of thumb odds I start with are four flush 4:1, oesd 5:1, two overcards 7:1, gut-shot 11:1. These are the most important.

The reason why you should only consider the odds your given to win on the next card is consider what happens if you miss. In your example the pot is now 1800. Since your opponent has been aggressive, it is quite likely he will bet the pot again. Therefore on the flop you need to realize it will probably cost you 2400 to get to the river. That's why you need more than 1.86 to 1.

Quick comment on implied odds. On the flop if you are heads up you can subtract around 3 small bets from these odds (see referenced thread for why). If it is a multi-way pot and there are people behind you yet to act you need better odds because one of them may raise ruining your pot odds (this is sometimes called reverse implied odds)

Cyrus · #6 05-04-2003, 03:08 AM

"What are the odds of making a straight if you flop openended?"

With 8 outs and 2 to come, you're a 2.2:1 dog. (DPCondit had already covered this in the other thread you asked the question.)

<ul type="square">TABLE OF ODDS WITH 2 TO COME IN HOLD'EM:

#OF OUTS --> ODDS AGAINST HITTING ON TURN OR RIVER

21 --> 0.43:1
20 --> 0.48:1
19 --> 0.54:1
18 --> 0.60:1
17 --> 0.67:1
16 --> 0.75:1
15 --> 0.85:1
14 --> 0.95:1
13 --> 1.1:1
12 --> 1.2:1
11 --> 1.4:1
10 --> 1.6:1
9 --> 1.9:1
8 --> 2.2:1
7 --> 2.6:1
6 --> 3.2:1
5 --> 3.9:1
4 --> 5:1
3 --> 7:1
2 --> 11:1
1 --> 22:1[/list]"I just have a question about flush draws. If you flop 4 to a flush I know the odds of getting it are 1.86:1 But what does this mean?

If there is $300 in the pot and I flop 4 to the flush and a player bets the pot $300 is it correct for me to call? I am calling $300 to win a pot of $600 thats 2:1 so I am getting correct odds?"

Very simply, pot odds reflect the current situation as if this was the last betting round. The issue of implied odds has been covered in the other answers on this thread. But straightforward pot odds mean just that, the odds the current pot is giving you as if no more betting will be done; and if no-more-betting is a realistic assumption, then those odds become the true odds.

"Doesn't this mean that in limit hold em and pot limit hold em it's ALWAYS correct to call flush draws? Since you can never bet more then the pot?"

I'm afraid this is erroneous understanding of pot limit in general and pot odds in particular. Contrary to what you suspect above, pot odds in limit poker are often close to the true odds, which means that adding implied odds to your consideration often doesn't change the picture much. This is rarely, if ever, the case with pot- or no-limit poker, where pot size estimations (including the requirements for you to bet) on subsequent rounds are quite different.