final table facing overbet with TPGK

[JC_Saves]

(blind)

I think on the button you should bet more than 2.5bbs. You offere the BB too good of odds to call with anything.

On the flop after he checks I would bet the pot to take it down or define what kind of hand he might have.

He probably played some garbage and hit a strt draw and then nailed it on the turn. He also could have called with Q6 protecting his blind, and nailed two pair on the turn.

if he is conservative player I would fold to his all-in,

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

why? if i push now, i'm going to lose hands like 88 or AJ that are drawing very thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Three handed? No you aren't, and you're not getting much more out of AJ unless he hits.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Three handed? No you aren't, and you're not getting much more out of AJ unless he hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yes you are. For example, you're getting his stack when he overbet pushes the turn with 3 outs.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Three handed? No you aren't, and you're not getting much more out of AJ unless he hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yes you are. For example, you're getting his stack when he overbet pushes the turn with 3 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

does this mean you call the turn?

[adanthar]

Yes. But I should mention that the way I play sets those calls up.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. But I should mention that the way I play sets those calls up.

[/ QUOTE ]

what does that mean? you splash around with hands that you could get pushed off of?

[IHateKeithSmart]

I call here. I think there is a small chance that villain has 2 pair, but I would more expect to see qt or qj, with villain playing the line of pushing any non-spade non-ace turn. I think he would re-pop preflop with a good ace.

[nightlyraver]

I agree completely with EK's analysis. If Villian has been screwing around in the past, I'm gonna have to call the push and hope he shows a slightly worse hand. However, without some read that suggests he is getting out of line I'm gonna have to give him credit for a hand better than top pair given all the draws. I'm thinking that the only hand we can beat that will reasonable follow this betting pattern is top pair with a very slightly worse kicker.

[1Winston]

I'm really just trying to learn MTT's more, but I will take a stab at this.

I think I would put BB on a 56. Seems with your description of the situation, that he was semi bluffing with the ReRaise on the flop to see where you were at, since you had been aggro. I think your flat call on his flop RR and his 6 pairing on the turn have him pushing this turn. He has decided to take a stand and win his past blinds back.

Tough call, I think I would have to do it.

[West]

I think there's a lot of different things he could have, and so, in light of your aggressive image, I think it's an easy call. I think it's too easy for him to have a QJ or QT type of hand. Sure, he could have slowplayed AA or KK, or have flopped better, but he could also have a draw. I think you also have to consider that there is more than a tiny chance that he is on a bluff drawing slim.

The thing about reraising him on the flop to me is that if he has a beaten Q, you may just scare him off...but you may not (especially if he sees you as aggro), and it would be especially bad to then fold to an all in against a hand you're way ahead of....if he has worse and no draw, then you definitely scare off a hand that may bluff (and your aggressiveness has made a bluff more likely now)...and if he does have a draw, and say you double the raise to 10800, then he's almost getting 4 to 1 to call anyway. You could reraise more, say to 15000, but I'd want to be very confident I was beat if he then moved in, in order to fold. I'm more inclined in this particular instance to just call and give him a chance to play a worse hand on the turn. Given the card that came off, I'd call without much thought. If he has you beat, gg.