Small Stakes Hold'em

In their book, the authors make a number of excellent statements. In one place they say "As long as you understand fundamental gambling concepts and make correct decisions, winning will be inevitable." They also say "Ignore the results and focus on making decisions that maximize your expection." My question is how long may it be before the inevitable arrives? I have looked back over 3000+ plus hours (182,312 hands) and the results are hard to ignore. I am losing a about 1 BB per hour primarily in 2-4 limit at Party Poker. I really feel good about my play at the end of each session; however the results seem to indicate otherwise. In looking at my hand histories, I really like what I see. Other than the BB, I am ahead prior to the flop 93% of the time. After the flop, I am still ahead 78% of the time. I seem to have an excellent understanding of hand selection and position. My two biggest problems are that my opponents are hitting their outs at a much greater rate than they should and I am not hitting my outs at the rate that I should. Pocket Aces are winning at an 11% rate. I still attack with them, but it is hard to fight the frustration. I have paid off on the river many a 2,3 or 4 out miracle card to my opponents. I was just wondering if I expect another 3000+ plus hours of this?

[Mister Z]

Pocket aces winning only 11% of the time after 182K hands seems statistically impossible to me. It sounds like you have a case of the tilt.

[hellite]

If you are "happy with your play" and are losing this badly you need to retire. Sriously, I am not kidding. You have a large sample and are clearly a losing player. Stop now or pay someone to teach you how to play.

[RatFink]

Have somebody else review a good sample of your hands. If you feel something is the right play, then reviewing the hands and seeing you perform that play you think you are right, when you may clearly be wrong.

[Ace-Ex]

Keep on playing! Actually you are probably doing a poor job of protecting your hands and staying with your good draws. But you'd have to probably work with somebody to figure out what you're doing.

[darydarling]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are "happy with your play" and are losing this badly you need to retire. Sriously, I am not kidding. You have a large sample and are clearly a losing player. Stop now or pay someone to teach you how to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say retire, but it is apparent you are not a winning player after 180K hands.

It is time to be honest and make a decision.

Either work on improving your play by reading more books, discussing hands with friends, or hiring a coach...OR

Just play for fun, #'s be damned and continue to lose.

[stocktrader23]

It's just a bad run. PLEASE DON'T QUIT PLAYING POKER! Pretty please?

Actually I do a good job of protecting my hand. In my statistics, I am below what one expect of his drawing hands. After flopping four to the flush, you have a 34.97% chance of catching your flush with two cards to come. In this and all areas of drawing, I am drawing at a rate of less than 50% of the expected rate. The only starting hand of 169 that I am doing above the expected value is 99. I am continually getting outdrawn by the hands that I would not start with, especially considering position and odds. AK goes down continually to the people playing Ax. I raise with AK 90% of the time preflop. I guess people have programs to tell them what type of player they are up against online. I have been informed that I am a Tight- Aggressive-Aggressive type. In the last 700 hands I played, I had AA(twice), KK(twice), and AK (6 times). All ten hands lost. I look at my statistics, shake my head a few times and wonder when things will move closer to the expected odds. The fact that the numbers look terrible does not cause me to change the hands that I start with based upon position, odds and opponents makeup. But it does make it frustrating when I look at the results.

Thanks for your post. Actually, I have a rather extensive library of both poker and blackjack books. I read each of them numerous times and study quite a bit. I read all the articles in numerous magazines such as Card Player. I play about 6 hours per day and study another 6 hours.

I would agree with you that the number sounds improbable;however, I have kept very good records of all of my play. I have seen about every bad beat. I do not tell them, I just say "ditto". Yes, I have had AA, flopped four-of-a-kind and lost. (Not in a bad beat game). It has prepared me well for some of 989-1 knockouts that I have sustained in WPT and WSOP events.