SNGPT says it's negEV....

[Sykes]

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Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

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Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

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Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+.


I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.

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Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

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Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+.


I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.

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Just for the record, if he had 32o, and he put you on a pair he'd need ~5:1 pot odds. In reality, he is probably getting the odds he needs because he'd raise with a decent hand only.