Sure seemed like a good play to me...semibluff gone wrong

NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:18240567 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Tuesday, December 13, 07:41:17 EDT 2005
Table Table 66807 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: duyennghiep ( $800 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $800 )
Seat 3: BANGO_BONGO ( $800 )
Seat 1: Poker5hark ( $800 )
Seat 6: ronniebass ( $800 )
Seat 4: TrOiCho99 ( $800 )
Seat 7: FKNHUGENUTZ ( $800 )
Seat 10: djonlieb ( $800 )
Seat 5: baykay ( $800 )
Seat 9: JAMESSLEMP1 ( $800 )
Trny:18240567 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Jh Qh ]
BANGO_BONGO calls [15].
TrOiCho99 folds.
baykay calls [15].
>You have options at Table 66816 Table!.
ronniebass folds.
FKNHUGENUTZ folds.
Hero calls [15].
>You have options at Table 66816 Table!.
JAMESSLEMP1 raises [30].
djonlieb folds.
Poker5hark folds.
duyennghiep calls [15].
BANGO_BONGO calls [15].
baykay calls [15].
Hero calls [15].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 3c, 9s ]
duyennghiep
duyennghiep checks.
BANGO_BONGO checks.
baykay checks.
Hero checks.
JAMESSLEMP1 bets [125].

duyennghiep folds.
BANGO_BONGO folds.
baykay folds.
Hero raises [350].
JAMESSLEMP1 calls [225].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
Hero is all-in [420]
JAMESSLEMP1 is all-In [420]
** Dealing River ** [ 9c ]
Hero shows [ Jh, Qh ] two pairs, nines and threes.
JAMESSLEMP1 shows [ 5d, 5s ] two pairs, nines and fives.
JAMESSLEMP1 wins 1700 chips from the main pot with two pairs, nines and fives.
Hero finished in tenth place.


Now my thought process here is that firstly I assume my jacks and queens are probably outs and I have a better than 50% chance of winning the hand against the bluff or weak pair that is likely raising after the field of checks, so I don't mind getting all in but prefer to try to pick it up with the check raise. On the turn, i'm still 45% or so to win assuming the same thing, and if i'm right, i'd _like_ to assume I have a bit better than a 5% chance that that weak hand will fold to my all in. Am I way off base with those assumptions or are they perhaps too marginal of edges to be pushing on? Or is my mistake thinking that a Party player will actually fold their anything better than king high or so. Or was I the donkey here and the guy picked me off on an obvious bluff? He sure called like he knew he had the best hand.

i like the line here. i may of considered calling the turn which was givin the right odds, if you hit i dont think villian will give you credit for the straight.
your tought process was good here, if i was villian i wouldnt go that far with my 5s unless i had a seroius read.

[handsome]

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so I don't mind getting all in but prefer to try to pick it up with the check raise.

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Actually, you should mind. All you have is an OESD. If you're going to put any amount of chips in there, just lead the flop.. don't check-raise. I really don't like check-raising in general. It's such a s#!tty move, especially with a trash hand this early on and without a read.

Also, preflop is a leak.

[tigerite]

Yeah, I fold preflop here; I might call it on the CO (sometimes) and would certainly call it on the button unraised, but CO+1 just seems a bit early for me.

By the way he doesn't only have an OESD, he has two overcards too, we can probably assign those almost full outs as well seeing as it's quite unlikely someone has a Q or J. However I don't like the check-raise here unless it's all-in because he's going to be OOP on the turn. So if I was going to go with the line the OP took, which sometimes I do considering the pot is what, close to 300-ish, I'm c-r'ing all-in.

I hate a lead on this flop though, just too many damn people in the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

so I don't mind getting all in but prefer to try to pick it up with the check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you should mind. All you have is an OESD. If you're going to put any amount of chips in there, just lead the flop.. don't check-raise. I really don't like check-raising in general. It's such a s#!tty move, especially with a trash hand this early on and without a read.



[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, check raising without deep stacks is not a good play. Too many villains feel they've already put in a portion of their stack and use the "committed" tag for an excuse to DONK off the rest of their chips.

"Actually, you should mind. All you have is an OESD"


Yeah like I said, I was thinking a jack or queen also would make me the best hand just fine, and I wasn't leading into several players, notice the guy raised in last position and everyone else folded, so the check-raise was heads up.

I was curious about seeing the flop at all though, consensus seems to say no? I'd have thought QJs is still a nice speculative hand for so cheap. I'm certainly not ending up getting a lot of chips in if the flop comes jack or queen high..

Oh and also, if QJs is folding at this point in the game, at what point in the game do you start including it?

[tigerite]

From the CO+1? Well, other than for steals, pretty much never.