How much can i expect to make?

[FlyingOver]

Hi guys,
Just wondering how much a good poker player can make playing single table tourneys (10 players). When the buy in is lets say $10 or $100. Pay Out is top three 50% 30% 20%
Most online games have this format.

Thankyou very much.
-MJ

[Bozeman]

~50% ROI

[lorinda]

Yep, Ill back that up , probably a little higher in the 22 and 11 tourneys.

[redmarion]

With expert play against total fish, you might expect break even in the long run. You are paying the house 9% vig on each game (this is huge). Even the casinos, during big tournies, only collect about 6.5% and they make a killing. You might make a few quick money finishes and quick a winner, but the longer you play the closer you come to the mean. If you have more than 3 knowledgeable players in this game, it can not be beat b/c you will not have the expectation of being in the money often enough.

at the lower levels if you are excellent. I have kept detailed results and after about 300 tourneys I find myself to average winning about the third place amount. I make money almost half the time, and so my average return at an 11 is 20, at a 22 it is 42, above that the playes do improve and it goes down. I havent played enough at those higher limits to give any reasonably accurate answer though I suspect 50% roi is probably accurate at the $100+9.

[lorinda]

Redmarion guessed:

With expert play against total fish, you might expect break even in the long run. You are paying the house 9% vig on each game (this is huge).

This is utterly incorrect, I have played substantially over 1000 tourneys in this format and can tell you that 50% is a pretty reasonable figure.
9% vig isn't too bad, remember that in the ring you pay ~2.5% vig on EVERY pot that you win.
A good tourney in this format lasts 80 hands or so, none of which are raked after the initial outlay.
Also, remember that total fish just don't win these events that often, sure they get lucky from time to time, but the concepts needed to be a successful tourney player are far harder to grasp than those in the ring.
This, I clarify before the flames begin, is not to neccesarily say that ring game players are not as skillful, but a mediocre player can survive in an equivalent number of hands in the ring with same bankroll much longer than they can in these kinds of tournaments since they get something back for each pot they win.
In a tournament, the fish has to beat the expert out of an entire bankroll to win the tourney, and a much clearer heirarchy of players is established.

[soda]

I'd like to back Lorinda up here. I've played many a tourney with you and I'm positive your results are very good (she is a very good player).

My own results have been ok despite a great deal of foolish play. When forced to play well (as if against my own will), I win about 1 out of 3 to 1 out of 4 of these tourneys (NL HE) at paradise. I'm sure a better player will have better results. In fact, I bet an expert can win more than 1 in 3 consistently. Anyone have thoughts on this?

It would be interesting to know if anybody actually makes their living off of these tourneys.

As for the person that stated the games cannot be beat, well, that simply is NOT true.

Just happen to have results for today:

8 $10 NL tourneys - 2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd, 1 4th (ugh) 3 complete busts.

2 $5 Stud 8 tourneys - 1 3rd, 1 8th (busted out on purpose to go to dinner with friends)

total profit - $52

I think I was slightly below average in luck today - in particular I got all the money in preflop, heads-up, 3 times with aces and got busted twice (so that accounts for two of the 8).

If you see me say hi - I'm sodapop BTW.

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soda