Second guessing myself 5/10 NL Wynn

[Xelent]

I was playing in this game the other day and just bought in for $1000 till' I saw how the game was going. There were a couple of very deep stacks in the must-move and the main game was filled with regulars. I was going to just try and take some money out of the must-move which was an action game. Player 1 was 2 seats to my right and he was the dictator of all the action. He had about $10K behind and was making it $80 to go about every 3rd or 4th hand. Player 2 was one to my left. I had played with him before and he was a very good player that had about $10K behind as well.

I'm in the BB with AQs (~$1300) on a hand where player 2 strattles.

Player 1 makes it $80 to go. I am still new to the table and had a weak-tight image and I could tell player 2 knew I was still figuring the table out before I was willing to risk too much money.

I decide to just call in the BB and Player 2 calls in the strattle.

Flop comes AT2 rainbow. (~250). I decide I am going to check raise Player 1 who has been relentlessly aggressive so I check. To my dissapointment and suprise, both players check behind me.

Turn comes AT2Q (~250). This time I lead out for $200. Player 2 thinks for a little and calls. Player 1 folds.

My thinking to this point is that he doesn't have KJ and would have raised if he did. He knows I am not going to pay him off big on the river he calls now and raises me on the river. He would have to put me on a decent hand and a raise to $400 or $500 is what I would expect with KJ. He is also capable of calling with any 2 cards from the strattle which I forgot to mention. I put him on either a decent Ace or two pair himself.

River AT2Q2 (~$650). I lead into the pot for $300. He thinks for a little bit and raises to put me all in. I go into the think tank for a while. It will cost me about $800 more to call.

Now normally this would be an easy fold. The problem here is that I kept telling myself he was making a move on me and I should call. I am getting pretty good odds on my money, but almost any non-bluff has me beat. I was also thinking why would he raise once the boat is possible in an already large pot with KJ when I've shown aggression the whole way.

Fold or Call and why? Remember, I have a weak-tight image.

[lapoker17]

lead the flop.

bad river bet.

check/call.

His read was that the aggro player would bet that flop, where he would check raise, that wasn't a bad idea, but I would have still led that flop, you only called from BB, You could have represented a weak ace that way and found out where you were right on that flop. Then the turn was the basis of your info.

As far as the Original Poster, This is a really tricky situation, I would say that the player checks the flop ONLY with a set/gutshot/two pair(A 2). All of these beat you by river (Except KQ gutshot). The only real hands he can do this (That isn't a complete bluff) is KQ, J 10, AK, AJ, A10.

Really hard decision, have to go on feel of the player, Online I would fold. Live I would have more info.


Post results soon [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[captZEEbo1]

One thing you should include is whether the Q was offsuit...also, what range of hands do you put him on that can call a river bet that checked this flop? I think KJ, AA, QQ, and TT are all pretty reasonable hands he can have here.

[scdavis0]

You would really expect player 2 (who you say is very good) to re-raise a king-jack pre-flop?

[ QUOTE ]
You would really expect player 2 (who you say is very good) to re-raise a king-jack pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did he re raise pre-flop? From the way it looks JK is a definate possibility.

[coltrane]

[ QUOTE ]
why would he raise once the boat is possible in an already large pot with KJ when I've shown aggression the whole way.



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because he has tens full....he whiffed with the checkraise on the flop when P1 checked, and he didn't raise on the turn because he thought you had KJ....

[Xelent]

He did not raise preflop. He called in the strattle which in live deep stacked games is standard to almost any reasonable raise with lots of possible combos. I agree that almost all possible non-bluff hands he has would probably have me beat which is why online this is easy fold. It was tough to grasp what he had live.

[mgsimpleton]

i mean there are obviously arguments for folding and calling, it is very possible this is a weak A trying to push you off a chop, but if he's a good player he knows you wouldn't bet the river with a weak A. the things you're beating are any A and a KQ/QJ type hand that's bluffing now... you keep stressing you are seen as weak tight so if this guy is aggro i'm leaning towards a call especially since you bet half pot on the river which screams blocking bet... but to reiterate what coltrane said, if he thinks you are weak-tight enough to only bet the nuts kind of thing, this is an easy just call with a set on the turn and an easier push on the river, so if he has a boat this is exactly how he would play it. but boats aren't very likely. it would have to be TTT, AA222, or 2222 since anything else would reraise preflop (hell i'm surprised if TT doesn't reraise if preflop is as crazy as you say).

[mgsimpleton]

also since you didn't include it I'll assume it isn't the case but if the turn made a 2 flush without the 2 he could maybe have 2x of that suit.