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#31
09-09-2005, 08:05 PM
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Re: good or bad AK trips fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I dont like to risk that much money. [/ QUOTE ] Play limit poker then. [/ QUOTE ] It's a fallacy -- albiet a counterintuitive one -- that limit play involves less risk than no-limit does. As evidence, it's true that variance is much higher in limit than in no-limit. 
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#35
09-09-2005, 08:25 PM
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Re: good or bad AK trips fold?
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Lets put it this way, if this hand was on tv and all the viewers and commentators could see the hands, and the other guy actually had pocket nines, then everyone would go WOW thats a big laydown, right? i hope u agree on that orelse i dont know what. [/ QUOTE ] You can't learn how to play good poker by watching TV. Corrolary: judging your play based on what you see on TV is a recipe for disaster. [ QUOTE ] If i think he has pocket nines how often can i lay my hand down? [/ QUOTE ] I he turned his hand over and showed you 99 for the boat, you decide to continue based on pot odds & implied odds. You know this, and I'm sure you know how to do the math. If not, let me know. The real question is, how narrow can you estimate your range to be? If in this actual case you put your opponent on: [ QUOTE ] 99 - 90% other - 10% [/ QUOTE ] ...then I think you have him on a much too narrow range. For one thing, there's got to be a 10% chance that he has air and is bluffing. What's the chance that he doesn't have 99 (or 88 or AA)? Well, let's take an extreme example. Suppose you push the flop. You're risking his $27 stack to win the 27 that's in there, so you're getting about 1:1. Is there a 50% chance that he doesn't have the boat? Sure. All he did was call PF then donk the flop. Two unpaired broadway hearts could do that just as easily as 88, and so could JJ, TT, JT, etc. See what I'm saying? You don't have enough information to put him 90% on 99. You said somewhere something along the lines of not wanting to take risks that are unwarranted. That implies that you want to wait to risk your money until your're sure that your'e making a play that will turn out to be +EV in the long run. Continuing with this hand will prove to be +EV in the long run. You might lose this pot, but you'll be +EV overall. You need to get comfortable with this. This is poker. [ QUOTE ] It might be weak but ill rather do that and win money than playing agressive and win some and loose some... cause it allways turns out red in my stats... [/ QUOTE ] (Emphasis mine) Then you aren't doing it right. Simple as that. Picking the wrong spots, not executing correctly, not following thru, following thru in the wrong spots... all these and more are possible. But it's not becasue "risky plays don't pay." It's becasue you're making the wrong plays.
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#37
09-09-2005, 08:32 PM
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Re: good or bad AK trips fold?
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im wondering if i NEVER should fold the hand? [/ QUOTE ] There is no never in poker. This isn't a cliche; it's a basic truth. Like it or not, the answer is "it depends". It depends on the range your opponent is on and pot odds. You shouldnt have here, but that doesnt mean never.
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#38
09-09-2005, 08:33 PM
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Re: good or bad AK trips fold?
There are situations where I would advise a fold with open trips. This is one of them, but I was in the minority on that. But generally speaking, no, you shouldn't be folding them at this level.
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#39
09-09-2005, 08:46 PM
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Re: good or bad AK trips fold?
ok, thanks again for all the answers [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
actually i knew this post was gonna get flamed, and also i knew that the fold was weak, i posted it here cause i thought that it maybe wasnt THAT bad, but the more i think of it the more i think it was a very bad fold... i knew his bet was weird, like why would he overbet when he improved to a boat? (if he had it). it doesnt make sense, he rather would have checked and let me bet and then move in.
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