Bad beat or bad play?

[empyrean]

I really don't know if I played this hand wrong. Anyone have comments?
7 Card Stud High-Low ($1/$2), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $0.50 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (1.50 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in

4th Street - (3.00 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls

5th Street - (3.00 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

6th Street - (9.00 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

River - (12.00 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___raises

Total pot: (18.00 BB)

[bigredlemon]

I like raising 5th to get HU with the lower low. I don't like better again after he calls since he'll mostly have two pair greater than 8s. I'd check, call a bet by the 9 but fold to bet by the low. If I make it to the river, I'm definetly not betting two pair 8s up. I'm only going to bet 6low or better. You mostly won't get paid by a worse hand and will only get called by a hand that beats you. If they hit well, they might even raise as you witnessessed, and you're left with a sticky situation.

[mscags]

I really don't like the raise on fifth street. You are most likely behind and probably way behind unless you catch near perfect. I would probably even fold on fifth when he bets into me bc I don't see how you can be ahead in either direction unless you have a stellar read on villian and he is known to play anything. While it seems like you caught good on sixth it is a clear fold if you look at your opponents board in my opinion. You are still probably behind to the low and now the other villian has an open ended straight draw if not a made straight or possibly a flush. I'm usually a big fan of value betting your two small pair on the river but not in this instance. Fold on fifth, fold on sixth, and fold on the river. Wait for a better chance to push.

[bigredlemon]

I like your line too and it's what I usually do. However, it's not nearly as fun, and folding gives you zero chance of scooping. The 9 would raise if he made a straight by now, and it'd be foolish to chase a straight draw against what we're showing. so I think getting HU might be worthwhile. I wholeheartedly agree it's almost certain Hero is behind both ways right now, but I dont think that should get in the way of some action.

[mscags]

I like your line once in a while if there is a pretty strong chance that we can get the other villian to fold, however in this case I don't think he is going anywhere and that hero is just spewing.

[bigredlemon]

Saying that the 9 won't go anywhere might be overstating his strength. If I were him, I'd probably still be more worried about a 3 bet from the possible wheel then Hero though, so I can see what you mean by spewing chips. Ideally we'd want to see the 9 check first before pulling this but the situation doesn't always lend itself to that.

I'm not sure if this play is + or -EV but if it doesn't work, I'm just billing it to the advertising department.

[Alchemist]

I'm going to agree with mscags about the raise on 5th being a bad idea. You're clearly representing a low the whole way, and everyone knows it's only an 8-6 low on 5th. With the 4A2 betting into you, he's saying (most likely) he can beat your low. Here I'd come to a screeching halt and call and see what 6th street brings.

I'd also check 6th here, especially with Seat 3 getting a scare card. What's your plan if he raises and Seat 7 makes it two more bets back to you? I'm not feeling too great about my hand right now.

River: I'd check here as well. You probably won't get rid of the high hand who's got a straight or flush (although I'm not sure why he never raised, may be worried about you having a boat) and your low never improved.

[empyrean]

I raised on fifth because I was absolutely certain that the a-4-2 did not have a low. I believed that the most he could have would be four to a low. I had been watching this player play, and he would bring-it in for a full bet with three low cards, no matter the cards. When he checked the ace on fourth I thought this was total weakness since he hadn't tried anything tricky the entire time. He made some very dumb plays, but they weren't tricky. Since he didn't bring-it in for a full bet, and didn't reraise on fifth, I knew that he didn't have the low made and possibly didn't even have four to a low. I couldn't figure out what seat 3 was doing until the showdow.

[bigredlemon]

even if he doesn't have a made low, he's drawing to a lower low and possible straight with a pair. He has much more pot equity than you do, so it's a mistake to bet/raise even if you were sure he didn't have a low.

In effect you are expeiencing the common omaha scenario of reverse-drawing. A person can have a draw so strong that everyone else with a made hand has to "draw" blanks on the hero's board. Hope that makes sense. His bet effectively makes you pay to see him miss his draw, and you are making yourself pay more. Luckily for you he either had very very bad down cards or didn't know this principle. Just don't do it again unless you are sure you can get the high to fold.


(Appendix: stas)

Most likely scenario presuming you are right.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1046365
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 5s ah 6c 2h 8c - 9c jd 8d tc 9s - 4s ac 2d 5d 4h
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5s 8c 6c Ah 2h 13789 24781 475178 41 266334 225996 7670 0.295
9s Tc 9c Jd 8d 0 344446 155554 0 0 0 0 0.344
4s Ac 5d 2d 4h 70194 130732 369227 41 225996 59166 7670 0.361


vs


2686320 samples required, using 500,000 sample simulation.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1046369
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 5s ah 6c 2h 8c - 4s ac 2d 5d 4h
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5s 8c 6c Ah 2h 71970 131808 368104 88 274739 219160 6101 0.410
4s Ac 5d 2d 4h 161594 368104 131808 88 219160 55393 6101 0.590

[empyrean]

7 Card Stud High-Low ($1/$2), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $0.50 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (1.50 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in

4th Street - (3.00 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls

5th Street - (3.00 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

6th Street - (9.00 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

River - (12.00 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___raises

Total pot: (18.00 BB)

Results:
Main Pot: $35 | Rake: $1

Hero: [ 5s Ah 6c 2h 8c 8s 2c ] [ LO: 8,6,5,2,A | HI: two pairs, eights and twos -- Ah,8c,8s,2h,2c ]

Seat 3: [ 7d Ts 9c Jd 8d Td 3c ] [ a straight, seven to jack -- Jd,Ts,9c,8d,7d ]

Seat 7: [ 3d Qd 4s Ac 2d Qs 6d ] [ LO: 6,4,3,2,A | HI: a pair of queens -- Ac,Qd,Qs,6d,4s ]

I don't why the guy with the straight never raised but I was glad. On fifth street I still figured I had the made low and a better low draw. The only card he could have was a three in the hole, and he did end up having that. However, I knew that he didn't have the made low and basically the three is the only card I'm worried about. Still the threes were live and I didn't exactly factor that in enough.