$10/20... Marginal 44 in MP...

[TheMetetron]

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Every blue moon you win this hand unimproved all the other times you get shown a better hand or get sucked out on.

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I'm waiting for someone to actually say how often this is and show me some math behind it being incorrect. Then, I'll agree.

For now, I've seen nothing but people's gut reaction which is different than mine (I instantly raised) and that's not much of a discussion.

Someone prove me wrong please, it's very possible I am, but it is at least very close.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
PFR 3-betting range to me was AK,AQ, AJs, maybe ATs, JJ+, maybe TT

Someone want to do one of those cool things that does hand combinations and stuff. They never were my forte.

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AK-16
AQ-8
AJs-ATs-8

=32combos

JJ-AA- 21
maybe TT-6

=21 maybe 27 combos.



so 32/27 your favor given your range. without the maybes its 28/21 you favor

[TheMetetron]

I think that a lot of people fold here even getting 9.5:1 out of fear that I raised PF and now just raised the flop against a 3-bettor out of the SB that lead this flop into a huge field.

It's a big show of strength and most people suck at handreading. Also, they don't want be the monkey stuck in the middle if we start going to war. They are likely folding a lot of hands they should call with (and in fact did, not to be results oriented).

As for SB leading into a big protected pot, I'll agree it shows strength, but I'm not sure if this guy is aware enough to 3-bet PF then check the flop. Most people don't do it like we do.

I don't know... I'm still kind of lost this hand. I think we have enough equity if we play it like I did that it is quite possibly the correct play.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PFR 3-betting range to me was AK,AQ, AJs, maybe ATs, JJ+, maybe TT

Someone want to do one of those cool things that does hand combinations and stuff. They never were my forte.

[/ QUOTE ]


AK-16
AQ-8
AJs-ATs-8

=32combos

JJ-AA- 21
maybe TT-6

=21 maybe 27 combos.



so 32/27 your favor given your range.

[/ QUOTE ]

So it's close to 50/50 and actually a bit in my favor? Great...

And the pot is 17 small bets when it gets to me. I'm getting 8.5:1 on my raise here, with me putting at least 1 more BB max in this pot without improvement.

Is that enough? Seems to me like it's more than enough and clear +EV even given the fact that CO/Button/BB may have a Q or 7. I guess we'd have to do a range on every player in the hand which is kind of ridiculous....

poker is tough.

[TStoneMBD]

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yes fold preflop (not as obvious) and fold flop.

too likely you are behind to preflop raiser. if youre ahead its only by a decent amount vs his overs. QQ flopped. while it makes it less likely a Q is out there, with coldcallers in the hand and a 3 bettor out of position you are just praying the SB has AK and the others have combinations of Ax and JT.

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The coldcallers are idiots preflop.

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this makes openraising 44 into a field of idiot coldcallers bad


edit: to reply to your rereply without creating a new post cluttering your thread

i know youre more concerned with postflop and i would be as well, but im not going to provide combinations for you. my opinion on the matter is that raising here is terrible. hope ive been helpful.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes fold preflop (not as obvious) and fold flop.

too likely you are behind to preflop raiser. if youre ahead its only by a decent amount vs his overs. QQ flopped. while it makes it less likely a Q is out there, with coldcallers in the hand and a 3 bettor out of position you are just praying the SB has AK and the others have combinations of Ax and JT.

[/ QUOTE ]

The coldcallers are idiots preflop.

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this makes openraising 44 into a field of idiot coldcallers bad

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This is true.

Meh, I dunno, PF raise probably bad idea on this table in retrospect. I can't remember much then they are like most looose 10/20 players who will coldcall with a lot more than I would.

Take that for what it's worth. I'm thinking the PFR may have been bad here, but I will situationally raise 44 from MP.

I'm more interested in the post flop play of this hand.

[kamelion44]

If you're not raising this flop, I think you probably shouldn't play it preflop...this looks like a pretty good flop for one that doesn't contain a 4. I like finding out what that donk bet means before thinking about folding.

[TheMetetron]

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If you're not raising this flop, I think you probably shouldn't play it preflop...this looks like a pretty good flop for one that doesn't contain a 4. I like finding out what that donk bet means before thinking about folding.

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I agree with you, but he didn't donkbet. The SB 3-bet and lead teh flop.

[kamelion44]

Oh yeah it's even in bold hehe... misuse of "donk." Got distracted by my recreation of the Red River Shootout. I still like the flop raise, even moreso after reading your additional reads. I'm too tired to do the math, but gut (which is what you were upset with with the dissenters' opinion, I know) it looks just like what you posted it as, marginal. Curious from proactive guys if it's really +EV after the math is done though?

[oreogod]

Im doing some pokerstove stuff right now...and even the 65 percent of the time u are ahead here, SB is still the favorite (giving BB a random hand the equity for SB comes out to 46.9 percent. You have 29.7 percent of the pot)

So what that means is...35 percent of the time ur dead to 2 outs. Of the 65 percent of the time u are ahead (on the flop) u are only winning, at best, about 30 percent of those pots w/ 2 other players in. So on the flop its looking pretty bad.

Now on the turn...if bb stays in, u still dont have the equity here. If BB is out u have 55 percent equity.

But the pot is large. Im to tired to put all this math toghether to find out what the cost you would need to cover in Effective Odds put TOP pg 106 could help u with that.