Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Limit Texas Hold'em > Medium Stakes Hold'em

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-12-2005, 07:29 AM
krammatrix krammatrix is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 32
Default Creating Odds f or yourself with draws

This is a concept i've been discussing with my roomate and I don't really understand. Say you have like a QJs type hand on a T42 flop with two of your suit. According to my roomate's logic, he bets and you just call, you're not getting odds to call again on the turn if you miss. What he argues is that if you cap the flop with him, then you're creating the odds for yourself to continue with the hand on the turn because you're creating a pot for yourself. What it seems to me is that you're paying to get those odds. You can pay that same 4 small bets you put in on the flop to see the whole hand, why would u put excecss money in? Sorry if this is elementary, i just dont' really get it
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-12-2005, 08:37 AM
elindauer elindauer is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 292
Default Re: Creating Odds f or yourself with draws

Your roommate doesn't get it. With two overcards, a backdoor straight draw, a spade draw, and a heads up pot, you're getting odds to continue no matter what happens on the flop. Further, it makes little sense to build a pot in order to give yourself the odds to continue, as you point out.

You don't need to do this to continue though, which is a sort of important point to understand...

By the way, this probably belongs in the beginner forum. Good luck.

-Eric
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-12-2005, 09:18 AM
bakku bakku is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: San Diego
Posts: 253
Default Re: Creating Odds f or yourself with draws

your roommate is very wrong
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-12-2005, 09:53 AM
stigmata stigmata is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 118
Default Re: Creating Odds f or yourself with draws

1. It's really rare to not have odds to see a flush draw through to the river.

2. Even in these situations, "giving yourself odds" is obviously completely ridonkulous. Your actually making the draw more expensive (over the hand) when you make the decision "to give yourself odds".

3. Perhaps your friend is getting confused with semi-bluffing, where you think that fold equity (e.g. you have reasont to think your opponent may be weak) + your outs makes raising a +EV play. When the fold equity part of this play fails, you have often now given yourself odds to get through the turn. However, capping the flop on a semi-bluff is rarely correct and is normally going to be a very costly mistake.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-12-2005, 10:18 AM
Dazarath Dazarath is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 185
Default Re: Creating Odds f or yourself with draws

1) Wrong forum.
2) Pumping a draw in a -EV manner to make your calldown +EV is not +EV in the situation you described. That's like saying, in NL, you should always raise to (your stack size) - 1 BB, so that on the flop, you have odds to call, even if you need to runner runner trips to win.
3) Your roommate should quit poker.. or give me his screenname.

Here's some math to show you why:
Let's make a few assumptions first, to simplify things. Your opponent will not pay you off if you make your flush, so your implied odds are exactly 0. You need to make your flush to win, so your overcards are not outs and you have 0 fold equity. The chance of hitting your flush is 1/5 on the turn and 1/5 on the river.

Ok, say the pot is 3.5 SBs. Your opponent bets, laying you 4.5:1. You need 4:1 for a breakeven call, so the call is +EV. You win 4.5 SBs once for every 4 times you miss and lose 1 SB. 4.5 SB - 4 * 1 SB = 0.5 SB, which your EV on the call. When you miss, the pot is now 5.5 SB on the turn, or 2.75 BB. When your opponent bets again, you're getting 3.75:1 on your money, so you have to fold.

Now, let's say you cap the flop instead. The pot is still 3.5 SBs. So now you're putting in 4 SB to win 7.5 SB. If you miss, on the turn (pot is now 11.5 SB or 5.75 BB), your opponent bets again, so you're getting 6.75:1 on your money. You now call.
1/5 of the time, you win 7.5 SB on the flop.
4/5 of the time, you miss on the turn and cost yourself 4 SBs, then:
1/5 (out of that 4/5) you hit on the river and win 6.75 BB
4/5 (out of that 4/5) you miss and lose 1 BB

So your EV is (1/5 * 7.5) + (4/5 * -4) + (1/5 * 4/5 * 6.75 * 2) + (4/5 * 4/5 * -1 * 2) = -0.82 SB
The last two are doubled to put everything in terms of SBs.
Someone check my math, I'm not sure if I did it correctly.

The point is, you're costing yourself too much in EV on the flop, and you're not gaining enough back on the turn/river. This is in a situation where you only have a flush draw. If you have a draw that's strong enough, pumping the flop can actually be +EV, because your chance of winning is huge. Something like a flush draw + a straight draw + live overcards.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-12-2005, 11:48 AM
Mempho Mempho is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Searching for my Luckbox
Posts: 227
Default Re: Creating Odds f or yourself with draws

In a vacuum, pumping a hand in order to achieve the proper odds to draw from the turn to the river is absolutely ridiculous. Of course, you may still raise for other reasons (free card on the turn). The QJs hand is obviously a terrible example because, as pointed out, this has way too many effective outs to throw away even heads up in a small pot.

In order to illustrate, I think you should take 23s in the big blind against a sole limper that only plays broadway hands and pairs 77 and up. It the flop comes K Q J with two of your suit, the correct play is to check-fold. The only time your semibluff is likely to work is if he holds 77-99 and that is too unlikely. You can't beat him in a showdown unless you make your flush and, in this case, to cap the flop with him to give yourself odds to draw on the turn is absolutely ludicrous.

Now, there are times when capping the flop is a good idea (the QJs example can be capped for the sigma of value and FE) and that is why your roommate is many times making a +EV play but for a donkish reason.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:31 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.