How low would you go...

[Lloyd]

x=% of time you call and win

Total chips = 6,150,000
Total prize money playing for = $1M ($250k already wrapped up for each)

Fold = 825k
825k/6150k = 13.4% * $1M = $134,146

Call and win = 2,015,000
2015000/6150000 = 32.8% * $1M = $327,642

Call and lose = OUT

Value of calling = x($327,642)

$327,642x = 134,146
x=134,146/327,642
x= 40.9%

So theoretically, if you win 40.9% of the time the value of calling equals the value of folding. We obviously need to win more than that for it to be profitable. 50%? 60%? I'd probably lean toward the 50% number.

Put him on a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,A8o+,KTo+ ,QTo+,JTo. That sounds about right based on what you've said. Therefore, you could call with 66+, A9s+, KQs+, ATo+ and have greater than 50% equity. If you wanted to be very (perhaps too) conservative and require 60% equity you would need TT+, AQs+, AK. Obviously there's a middle ground there as well. I do think he could be pushing with a huge range of hands here and doubling up gives you a legitimate shot at 1st.

[Lloyd]

That was referring to a satellite tournament where he could fold into the money. Very different here. And very dangerous to apply the same principles.

[KneeCo]

[ QUOTE ]
Well for what its worth, if im the SB and I know the BB is a thinking player, I'm pretty sure its cEV+ to push any 2 here... and I'd say that equals EV+

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that 'thinking player' is right here.
Rather, if he has a read that the 1M stack wats to move up and will accordingly fold anythng but KK+, pushing with any 2 is good.
However, the 5M stack is primed to enter HU with a 5:1 chip lead, why automatically risk making it 2:1 just to pick up the blinds?

[Exitonly]

That equation is flawed, theres no way that if he folds worth he's that substantially less than 3rd place (250k).

[Saborion]

I don't know how to make the math, but the SB is an aggressive player, capable of raising with a lot of hands. The reason I asked this is because when I played some SnGs I remember that when it's 4 people left and you have a big stack, you can bully them quite a lot. This seems to apply here as well since the short stack is likely to bust soon, especially if they gang up on him on the next hand. The difference of $250k prize money between third and second place is quite a lot, but it's all relative and you've got to draw the line somewhere.

I don't know at which level they were thinking and all that, but I'd like to believe that AA and KK may be slightly less likely due to the push, which makes calling with lesser hand a bit more attractive. Can't be certain though, have to have been there I guess. I just think that I would've been quite tight there, but I wonder how tight "correctly" tight is. If he push with A5o and we call we'll still lose 30 % of the time. Very nice sitaution to get all in, being that big of a favorite. Is it good enough given the situation?

I know it isn't the same situation. And normally I wouldn't apply this principle, but the Button is being swallowed by the blinds in the next 2 rounds. If his stack was 2BB then I would definately not fold AA, but now he has to push in the SB otherwise a double up in the BB won't matter that much to his stack.

Ofcourse it's +EV to call with AA, but I rather play HU with a 5-to-1 chipdeficit then finish 3rd and donate an extra 250k to the shortstack. I know Christmas is coming, but this is insane!

Shorty is all-in next hand. Biggy is correct to push any two here, and you are correct to fold any unpaired hand even knowing this information.

As for pairs, if he's indeed pushing any two, I think you'll find TT+ as +EV. If he's pushing only 75%, then call QQ+. If you think his range is less than that, then stick with just Kings and Aces.

My ICM calculations puts the value of your stack at ~550K if you fold and ~650K if you call and win. Obviously you win 250K if you call and lose.

So if we want to find out the chance you need to win (we'll call that P) to break even, we get 0 = P * 100K - (1 - P) * 300K. That translates into P = 75%.

So calling with a dominating hand is wrong, since you're usually only about 70% to win those. You basically need an overpair to his two cards. And without running stuff in Pokerstove, I'd say only AA and KK gives you good enough odds against his range.

[Lloyd]

Not flawed. Third place money is already locked up and not included. That's why there's only $1M of prize money being played for and not $1.75M. Everyone has locked up $250k.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
no no, this is different han the sirio hand.

he had everything to lose, and nothing to gain, becacuse it was a satelite 12th paid as much as 1st, so theres no reason to go from say 10th chip stack to the leading chip stack when theres 13 left.

In this situation though where 1st is substantially more than 2nd, it helps us a lot to double up here. Still we're not going to want to get knocked out right now a big % of the time. So i'll be conservative still, and say he's only pushing the top 50% of hands. ANd i'll arbitrarily decide that i want to still be around 70% of the time, so that would be JJ+ .. and that's it.

if he's pushing more than 50%, or if you dont need quite 70% equity for it to be good, then add in 99+ AJs+ AQo+

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Ansky's range pretty much. Maybe even ATs b/c I'm a sucker for that hand.

This isn't like the sirio situation for the reasons given, but also no one's really explicitly considered the fact that you need a stack to take on the big stack with. Everyone's implying that more chips=good, but what this really means is you have to put yourself in a position to WIN. Namely, imagine if the situation were that you had 500k and the shorty had 150k and the biggie had 10M. You can't pass up a chance to make yourself a stack to take on the big stack, otherwise you're basically conceeding winning an extra $250k for having no chance at first. You might go totally card dead the rest of the tourney. Take your shot now when you get it.

In my opinion, chips have increasing value here, as it gives you more than just a proportionate chance at taking a shot at the leader for every chip you get. You need wiggle room. Shorty could also magically suck out with 72o against Aces when he's forced to go all in, and you get fuzunked.

Always remember you're playing for first.