Blind vs. blind fold

[rory]

30/60 PokerStars, full game

I have 45o in the BB. Folded around to the SB (a little too loose preflop, fairly aggressive postflop) who calls. The flop comes 76J, rainbow. SB bets, I fold.

[etizzle]

i take it you think your opponent will rarely bet/fold the flop in this situation?

[rory]

I was sort of thinking like this: if my opponent wanted to balls out bluff me out of the pot, he would have done it preflop, so he probably has something. If he has something, this guy is pretty aggressive so I am unlikely to be able to get a free card or anything like that. I know I am drawing and I am not getting odds to draw and I don't think I can outplay this guy by making him fold or giving me a free card so I just fold. Terrible?

[Fianchetto]

We can be almost certain you do not have the best hand, so you are drawing and not getting correct odds to do so. You say this opponent is fairly aggressive so if you raise now to get a cheap turn card you could end up paying a lot more than you wanted to.

You do have position, so the other idea is if you want to make a move/steal this pot. However, how big is the pot? 1.5BB. It's small. You do have outs if you try something like a turn raise, but you really have nothing to show down if you miss. Trying to steal this pot is going to cost you between 2BB-4BB. To me this seems like a high variance/expensive move that needs to work often to be profitable. I'd be much more inclined to try this if you had at least ace high or a pair in the hole.

Now, if you have been routinely laying down to his bets when heads up, at some point you are going to need to play back at him but I'd wait for a better opportunity. I think it is a good fold.

[TStoneMBD]

youre getting 3:1 on a draw that needs about 5.5:1. if youre right in that he will certainly bet the turn you are getting 5:1 effective odds, plus further implied odds. if youre wrong and he wont bet the turn then you get a free card. the only way this fold would be correct is if you somehow knew he would bet if you missed, and check if you hit. i dont like the fold. id at least call here if you dont think a raise wont work.

[roy_miami]

I would have just called 1 bet to see the turn, your 4's and 5's are not worthless here either.

[sfwusc]

Hey, I dont play this limit so....

I dont like the fold either. The pot has 3 SB or 1:3 to call.

no flush possible so you have 8 outs to the best hand... assuming he isnt on a gutshot draw with a 9T

You need 4.75 to call the one card.

If you hit the payout would be great---the player is aggressive.

Pay for the turn... one sb. the bb is a sunkcost.

You dont catch it 83% of the time, but you do 17%.

If you catch you will get 3.5BB(1.5 in the pot along with the turn, river)

83% times -0.5
17% times 3.5

EV+ .18BB

Maybe I am crazy though. With position you can reraise the river and maybe get called. adding another bb.

SFWUSC

[1800GAMBLER]

This is a god god god god god god god awful fold. Simple logic shows how it's an awful fold:

Here's the cases, you are currently getting 3:1 on a (at worse) 5:1 shot so all he has to do is to bet/call the feckin' turn and you are getting your odds.

So for you to fold he must never ever ever ever ever pay you off for 1BB. Ok so if ever time you call the flop he folds the turn your bluffing equity is 100% and you pick up the flop on the turn every single time.

So you are either getting the implied odds or bluffing equity.

edit: TStoneMBD said it better than me.

edit 2: amazing how many replies do not understand equity or how your outs 'double' the times he checks the turn.

[builtiz]

Its not a terrible fold, but you have to really sure about your opponent. I recently played a tight/agr. 40-80 live game where everytime the small blind and i were heads up he would limp and then if I didn't raise preflop he would auto fire the flop no matter what. I took me about 3 times to finally realize that he had nothing most of the time.

If your up against a tricky opp. like what was mentioned above I think you have to raise so you don't get run over.

Also you should take note that if you hit your hand and your oppenent has a real hand like 2 pair you will get a ton of action if you hit your draw so a call might be worth it to see the turn.


If there is any chance your oppenent might fold middle pair or a similar draw you have to raise.

You're right your not getting odds but with the right oppenent you may get implied value if he decides to go animal with you on the turn or river.

Close decision I think your play is fine, if I was running bad I would probably do the same thing.

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
I was sort of thinking like this: if my opponent wanted to balls out bluff me out of the pot, he would have done it preflop, so he probably has something.

[/ QUOTE ]

As builtiz said, I think this assumption is flawed. He could easily have some marginal hand that he wants to see the flop / check out your hand with. When you don't raise preflop, you usually don't like your hand much. The flop usually doesn't help a hand, so why not steal on the flop with the added info he has now?

B.