Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise - Page 3

#21 12-03-2005, 09:49 PM

I think a CR is a definite option here. If MP3 is a position aware player, his range of raising hands is much larger particularly after two limpers.

You have at least 9 outs to the nuts, and possible pair outs as well. The pot is large, and folding MP1 may allow you to take it down on the turn (in addition to buying outs to your 7) if MP3 peels and folds the turn UI. If not, you're putting in one big bet on the turn regardless due to your nut draw. If MP1 cold-calls with a weak K or other draw, you still retain a small equity edge in the 3-way pot.

The argument against the CR is that you may end up putting in three bets on the flop HU against the PFR.

Shillx · #22 12-03-2005, 10:01 PM

Betting here sucks. It gives your hand away, doesn't get value and makes it tougher to take down the pot. If you really want to win it, I would check/raise and hope to fold out the 3rd player. Then plan on folding out the PFR with a turn bet (provided he just calls the flop c/r). That seems like a pretty decent option here. Of course you could check/call and I might do that from time to time.

Brad

Edit - You could bet/3bet the flop. I was saying that betting sucks if you plan on just calling a raise.

#23 12-03-2005, 10:12 PM

Any strategy that involves betting this flop is wrong.

If there had been no raise preflop - Super easy bet.
If there is one or two more players inbetween you and the PFRer - Super easy bet.

Just check/call and bet the turn when you make your flush.

#24 12-03-2005, 10:18 PM

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If you really want to win it, I would check/raise and hope to fold out the 3rd player. Then plan on folding out the PFR with a turn bet (provided he just calls the flop c/r). That seems like a pretty decent option here.

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I thought about this option but villian would be getting ~7:1 on the turn call even if you do fold out MP1.

#25 12-03-2005, 10:26 PM

My concern with the CR is MP1 folds and MP3 makes it 3 bets. In this case, I think we may be getting the worst of it, but it's 1 small bet so it's probably worth it.

no1super2001 · #26 12-03-2005, 11:30 PM

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Perhaps incorrectly, but I initially view anyone who sits down and posts before the blinds come to them as a weaker player.

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Actually posting in the cutoff position has slightly positive expectation per hand for the first 7 hands (-1.5SB/10 per hand versus -1.0SB/7 per hand) over waiting for the blinds. Also if you are a winning player then your real hourly rate increases if you are in the game sooner. There is also the additional benefit of having a lot of players see you as "weak". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Run the math for me, if you would. Here is my basis for thinking this way, incorporating my averages.

Assume 20% VP$P, and 30% from SB and 4BB/100 @ 0.50/1. That puts you seeing 27% of the flops at a cost of about 30SB/100 with raises. Your average cost is $0.30 per hand. Average winrate is then a total of 38SB/100 or $0.38 per hand.

Folloing the same line for the remaining 6 hands, you will play about ~1.8 additional hands in the first round. That is 2.8SB for those hands, or $0.40 per hand. Granted it may be insignificant overall, considering that you may play a couple hundred hands at the table before leaving.

I think more importantly, you also give up the advantage of watching the play at the table without distraction for a few minutes.

Shillx · #27 12-04-2005, 02:16 AM

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My concern with the CR is MP1 folds and MP3 makes it 3 bets. In this case, I think we may be getting the worst of it, but it's 1 small bet so it's probably worth it.

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This post really isn't of concern at low limits, it is just something that you will begin to need as you move up. It is also good when you are playing against people who know what is going on.

This hand is actually really interesting from a Game Theory perspective (I've been teaching myself NL SNG GT for the last few days...not very thrilling [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Your comment shouldn't be a concern. Having to put in 3-bets with a flush draw is not a probem at all with the equity we have (maybe 40% on average). Thinking about the hand and figuring out why CRing is better then betting is though. Look at why we shouldn't bet here (actually I would bet under one condition)...

1) What other hands are we going to bet? Any pair is going to check/raise this flop. We aren't going to bet/call with something like 2-pair or a set. We can only have a draw when we decided to bet/call the flop. Of course we can bet/3bet the flop, but I don't think that anyone had that in mind when they said "bet".

2) Say we bet and get called. Now what do we do when we miss on 4th street? Do we check/call and give our hand away for the 2nd straight street? Do we bet again and hope to not get raised? It doesn't really put us in a fun spot. The best play would probably be to check/raise the turn if we just get called, and that is what I would do if I get called by the PFR.

3) We will be check/raising the flop with all kinds of hands here. Good draws like the nut flush draw and any pair. We will be betting out with big hands like sets so we would also bet/3bet good draws there as well. We might even check/call-donk or check/call-check/raise with a variety of these hands as well. Now all the suddon we are tough to play against as many hands we are behind get into bad spots.

So here is what I would do with this hand...

- Check/raise the flop with all pairs and sometimes check/raise the flop with a draw. Pairs need protection so we have to check/raise them. It would be nice if we could bet them, but that just isn't the case here. Therefore we have to add a mixer to keep them off balance.

- Bet the flop almost always with a big hand. Intend on 3-betting. Sometimes intend to use this line with a draw.

---- If we just get called, check/raise any turn. If he called the flop with a weak hand, I don't want him to just fold to a turn bet. By checking we can hopefully get another bet out of him with A-high or whatever. We will usually have a set when we check/raise but sometimes have a draw. If he checks behind, we will sometimes gain a free card. It also isn't terrible when we have a set because he will call us on the river (and he would have folded the turn so we get another bet by checking).

- Rarely check/call-check/raise a big hand or draw. Check/call-bet both hands an even lesser % of the time.

Now do you see how tough it is to play against us?

Redd · #28 12-04-2005, 01:04 PM

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---- If we just get called, check/raise any turn. If he called the flop with a weak hand, I don't want him to just fold to a turn bet. By checking we can hopefully get another bet out of him with A-high or whatever. We will usually have a set when we check/raise but sometimes have a draw. If he checks behind, we will sometimes gain a free card. It also isn't terrible when we have a set because he will call us on the river (and he would have folded the turn so we get another bet by checking).

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Would you c/r the turn with a pair too? Because then if he checks behind, he gets a free card and not us. Which would really suck.

Catsailor · #29 12-04-2005, 02:29 PM

Grunch:
Preflop is a little thin depending on the table but I tend to limp this.
I think either c/c or c/r flop. With the pre flop raiser in last position a ck/r might fold out MP1 and buy you some outs. You could then ck/c turn ui or bet and raise if you hit your flush.

Shillx · #30 12-04-2005, 04:09 PM

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---- If we just get called, check/raise any turn. If he called the flop with a weak hand, I don't want him to just fold to a turn bet. By checking we can hopefully get another bet out of him with A-high or whatever. We will usually have a set when we check/raise but sometimes have a draw. If he checks behind, we will sometimes gain a free card. It also isn't terrible when we have a set because he will call us on the river (and he would have folded the turn so we get another bet by checking).

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Would you c/r the turn with a pair too? Because then if he checks behind, he gets a free card and not us. Which would really suck.

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No I would not check/raise the turn with a flopped pair (because I will check/raise the flop). This is just a plan and we have to adapt it as we go along. So we have our A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and bet the flop and just the PFR calls. On 4th street the board looks like...

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Now instead of check/raising, I would just check and call. A check/raise will only get him to fold hands I have totally killed (like QQ) and will lose more from Ax that just found something. Likewise I don't mind giving him a free card with top pair aces since he will usually have 1 or 2 outs against me.

Now pretend I have a set (say three 6's) and bet the flop. Again just the PFR calls. On 4th street the board reads...

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I will come out betting again as not to give a free card to a naked [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If the turn is the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I will check/raise him.

Brad