Tough Laydown?

xwillience · #1 10-28-2005, 01:47 AM

villian is 16/9/1.7

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K.
2 folds, MP1 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, MP1 caps, Hero calls.

AA KK QQ JJ or AK

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8, 5, 3 (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

here is where im almost positive im beat.... its the way he bet so fast that has me almost positive that im beat

Turn: (7.75 BB) 4 (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls.

nothing really has changed so im sticking with it.... only one hand beats me so i dont feel like i can lay this down yet

River: (9.75 BB) 8 (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls.

still no overcards....

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

opinions? am i scared or do you feel that betting speed can be a tell? Do you play this the same way?

newhizzle · #2 10-28-2005, 02:20 AM

id probly cap the flop, call down if villain leads the turn, maybe raise, but i dont want to be 3-bet, id bet if checked to and call down a check raise, you should definately not be folding anywhere

#3 10-28-2005, 03:51 AM

standard call. I cap the flop which is standard too. Folding would be way weak tight.

hobbsmann · #4 10-28-2005, 03:53 AM

cap the flop. Call down if he leads the turn, bet and call a raise if checked to.

xwillience · #5 10-28-2005, 04:53 PM

playing the devils advocate here (and my attempt at developing posting and thinking skills)... what good does capping the flop do. say you cap the flop. a nonace card comes on the turn:

Scenario 1) he checks.. do u bet or check thru? say you bet... either he calls or check raises... do u call a check raise? if u do call the check raise you have to call a bet on the river. say he just calls your turn bet (this is my favorite option but is dependent on him checking the turn)? whats your action on the river?

Scenario 2 (the more likely one) he bets into you on the turn do u raise? can you even call a three bet? If he bets into on the turn how does that affect your read? so you call down the turn and river.. and your in for an extra .5bb?

I cant see how capping the flop is the right play. this is one of the hands were your either way ahead or way behind and if anything capping the flop just sets you up for bigger mistakes later on. What percentage of the time are you ahead here? If your up against QQ or JJ they will more than likely slow down, AA and your going to loose more money. This is already a situation were your going to win the least and loose the most.

shant · #6 10-28-2005, 05:02 PM

I'd cap the flop, or sometimes call and raise the turn.

crazygoose · #7 10-28-2005, 05:02 PM

I call that three bet on the flop and then raise the turn. It looks like he will be pushing his overs pretty hard and your three bet preflop and raise on the flop isnt quite enough to clearly indicate you have an overpair. He is capping JJ maybe even TT preflop so I think you are ahead of more PPs than not. Extract maximum value when you have him dominated. If he three bets that turn just call down.

shant · #8 10-28-2005, 05:07 PM

You're being a little weak tight. So you ran into Aces this time, that sucks. A TAG opened from MP1 and got 3-bet by another tight player. Your 3-bet range to him is huge, which opens his capping range.

Even if you think his capping range is only JJ-AA and AK, a TAG with that AF is going to 3-bet this flop with QQ and JJ, so capping really can't be wrong. If he has Aces and checkraises the turn or you call down with a loser it happens.

jba · #9 10-28-2005, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this is one of the hands were your either way ahead or way behind

[/ QUOTE ]

we are ahead more often than we are behind.

[ QUOTE ]

What percentage of the time are you ahead here?

[/ QUOTE ]

if he's never 3betting flop with AK you are ahead 66%

[ QUOTE ]

If your up against QQ or JJ they will more than likely slow down

[/ QUOTE ]

but not fold

[ QUOTE ]
AA and your going to loose more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

can't win em all

edit: wait, wtf is this "laydown" stuff???

SeaEagle · #10 10-28-2005, 05:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this is one of the hands were your either way ahead or way behind and if anything capping the flop just sets you up for bigger mistakes later on. What percentage of the time are you ahead here? If your up against QQ or JJ they will more than likely slow down, AA and your going to loose more money. This is already a situation were your going to win the least and loose the most.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think you're giving enough credit to overpairs on an 8-high board. I would expect JJ and QQ to 3-bet this flop just like villian did. If you cap the flop and they still bet the turn, well, then maybe you're looking at AA.

Based on the action through the flop, I'd say you're ahead more than you're behind, and when you're ahead you want to be putting chips in the pot.