semi-weird 200/400 bellagio hand

[ggbman]

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Some interesting analysis from very good posters, but I think it's a little more straightforward than some are making it out to be:

1. Solid SB raises several limpers preflop. Range: Big pair, AK-AJs, some suited connectors or big suited one-gappers.

2. Solid SB calls a flop 3 bet. Range: We can eliminate the suiteds unless they're spades. So now we've got AK, KQs-KJs, or two spades.

3. We still have girl to worry about.

So, when the third spade hits the board it seems exceedingly unlikely that you're ahead of SB, with a good chance that you're drawing dead. Seems like a pretty clear check to me, and possibly a river fold for even just one more bet if it comes from the SB.

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Everyone should read this, because this an EXCELLENT analysis IMO.

Furthermore, some hands that have you beat still might check this river in fear that the lady missed her CR giving you a freeshown. it's not likely, but if it happens 10% of the time it's worth considering.

There are not too many non-spade draw hands that are peeling here, so giving free cards shouldn't be a concern here because more often you are getting check-raised by better hands, or at least called down whereas you could have saved a bet by checking.