A weird one.

[DeathDonkey]

If villain folds a small pair after we 3 bet and bet the turn, that's great. But against a LAG with position more frequently we are going to get raised on the turn too and then we are putting in a ton of bets, OOP, with no clue whether we need to improve or not.

After the field is cleared we need to be concerned about getting to the river and deciding whether or not to show down AK high. You don't beat LAGs by outlagging them.

-DeathDonkey

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The flop bet I think is a pretty close situation. I think I have enough equity and will be able to get an implied-collusion raise from UTG to be betting into him. While I may be behind a fair amount of the time he raises, I know he's capable of playing badly and aggressively postflop, and I think this is a good time to take advantage of that.

The main reason for this is that despite my redraws, I want a 6-outer folding in a pot this large, and when I lead into a LRR after capping preflop, my hand's strength is certainly overrepresented. While QJ-type hands aren't folding here, ever, there are hands that are ahead (mostly PP's), and 6-outers that may think they're drawing thin enough that they want to fold. I need to do whatever I can to give them justification to make a bad fold here. Of course, I have a parlay here that needs to work for me to make this a good flop bet, but I think my LAGdonkey friend will be raising a wide enough range that I can use the flop bet to my advantage.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, 100% right on the mark! This is perfect but what I can't get my arm's around is your thinking AFTER it gets head's up. Doesn't it seem the 2 sbs are worth the FE your gaining (on the tun, that is - he's never folding the flop raise)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I'm gaining much, if any, FE by playing aggressively HU. I might make a hand fold that has some pair outs, but I don't think I'm making a PP or any hand that actually hit the board fold ever.

Rob

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
If villain folds a small pair after we 3 bet and bet the turn, that's great. But against a LAG with position more frequently we are going to get raised on the turn too and then we are putting in a ton of bets, OOP, with no clue whether we need to improve or not.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... this is trade off. It would suck to be raised on the turn, but in that case I believe that we would have enough gutshot outs to call profitably (not to mention pair outs). So while it would suck, I think it may still be better.

Not all LAGs will go to the mat with a small PP here. Some just need a little more coinvincing than others in order to let it go. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think I'm gaining much, if any, FE by playing aggressively HU. I might make a hand fold that has some pair outs, but I don't think I'm making a PP or any hand that actually hit the board fold ever.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's you feel/read that you can never get villain to fold his pair then it would, obviously, be retarded to 3 bet the flop.

To be honest and clear... the problem with my line is when we lead the turn (on a rag turncard) and get raised, it is uncomfortable and potentially expensive but I'll refer you to DD and those comments.

Nice post.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[13:02] me: read my thoughts on the flop bet
[13:12] me: why do you think if I get raised I'm not still holding the best hand sometimes?
[13:12] me: I've gotten raised on these flops by such random [censored] when I'm holding a much bigger hand than AK
[13:12] tstone: i trust the limpreraise as a big hand
[13:12] tstone: i was considering not capping preflop
[13:13] me: ah, ok.
[13:13] me: I was in a state of what I call "semi-trust"
[13:13] me: meaning he's gonna have to prove it.
[13:13] tstone: the pot is protected tho
[13:13] me: but I really wanted 6 outers to fold if I had the best hand.
[13:13] tstone: the bet doesnt accomplish anything
[13:13] tstone: i really cant see you making it to showdown
[13:13] tstone: its just not possible imo
[13:13] me: I think you're being too rigid.
[13:14] me: or are forgetting how bad some lags (esp. @ lower limits) play.
[13:14] me: I understand the parlay and I think it's close.
[13:15] tstone: there is just no way that you bet this flop, a worse hand raises and the other 2 players fold and you have the best hand
[13:15] me: but I think it's a big enough pot that it's worth investing two, when a lot of limpers wont' be able to call two on the flop with their variety of hands here.
[13:15] tstone: someone will always have a queen
[13:15] tstone: or call with a ten
[13:15] me: no they don't need to fold the best hand
[13:15] me: that's the point
[13:15] me: though they will sometimes fold 88 etc
[13:15] tstone: the limp reraisers hand range if he doesnt have a legitimate holding is going to be paired up so many times on that board
[13:15] tstone: no but im saying they are going to have alot of Qs and Ts
[13:15] tstone: and alot of draws
[13:15] tstone: i just honestly never see you ever taking this pot down unimproved
[13:15] me: I have plenty of equity against Qs, Ts, and draws tho.
[13:16] me: just flop equity of course.
[13:17] me: trying to get a fair range for these limpers
[13:17] me: gonna say ~55%, no big hands
[13:17] tstone: queens and tens are big ranges
[13:18] tstone: if they dont have those they probably have Ax
[13:18] tstone: which you want in anyway since they are dominated
[13:18] me: actually I want Ax to fold
[13:18] me: I want 3 outers to fold
[13:18] me: I want 6 outers to fold
[13:18] me: that's the problem. I want them to fold basically any hand they hold.
[13:18] me: they may or may not, but they almost certainly won't for one bet
[13:19] tstone: hold on this is a new concept to me so give me a few minutes to work it out in my head
[13:19] tstone: but i realize youre not analyzing this right
[13:20] me: ok so 4-ways my equity is > 25%
[13:22] tstone: i cant do this now its way too complicated for me and im not in the right frame of mind as its almost sleep time but... if you make them fold 3 outter hands that decreases your equity when you need to improve to your gutshot and overcards which i think is a huge portion of time. the amount of times you take this pot down unimproved are very infrequent. if you estimate the times you take this pot down unimproved and have 3 outters divide that equity by their own i think youll see that its less than the amount of equity you gain by the other times you need to improve to win and make them fold hands that would have added to your equity and implied odds
[13:22] me: it's a lot tougher of a flop situation than most people are willing to give it credit for I think.
[13:23] tstone: so if you say you win the pot unimproved 10% of the time which is really stretching it, calculate 10% of the pot equity divide it by whatever equity 3 outs is. then take the 90% of the time you need to improve divide it by your estimated outs and the bets they put in
[13:23] tstone: i think youll see the bets they put in 90% of the time are much more valuable then the 10%
[13:23] me: well, here's one thing.
[13:24] me: if I fold their range, which I gave them as follows:
[13:24] me: 88-33,ATs-A2s,KJs-K2s,Q2s+,J3s+,T5s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,65s,ATo-A2o,K4o+,Q6o+,J7o+,T7o+,98o,87o
[13:24] me: ~50%
[13:24] me: my equity improves by over 21%
[13:24] tstone: Ats?
[13:24] tstone: KJ?
[13:25] me: I know those hands aren't folding.
[13:25] tstone: well take them out
[13:25] tstone: you also put in queens
[13:25] tstone: a q isnt folding
[13:26] me: I don't quite agree with your analysis either.
[13:26] me: because if I make them fold a 3 outer that 3 outer wouldn't be paying me off when I hit my hand
[13:26] me: so it's not like my implieds go up
[13:27] tstone: a 3 outter assumes they are Ax or Kx
[13:28] tstone: which means they pay off
[13:28] me: oh ok
[13:28] me: thought you were assuming Ax paying off when I hit a J
[13:28] me: was puzzled
[13:28] tstone: i mean its really complicated obviously theres no way i could make this into an equation
[13:28] tstone: there are too many variables for god to handle it
[13:28] me: haha
[13:28] me: it was def. weird
[13:29] me: I think there's some value in folding 6 outers though
[13:29] tstone: that only assumes you win this pot unimproved
[13:29] me: because those won't pay me off on the turn
[13:29] tstone: again i just dont see that as possible
[13:29] me: what % would you give it?
[13:29] tstone: what do you estimate the odds are that you win the pot umiproved?
[13:29] tstone: i mean im honestly going to give it like a 2% at best
[13:30] tstone: why dont you post this conversation in your thread so that others can read our poor excuses for an analysis
[13:30] tstone: because they arent going to appreciate how complicated this situation really is
[13:31] me: sounds good.

[/ QUOTE ]

[molawn2mo]

I, for one, appreciate the IRC conversation.

I don't know if tstone sees the parlay like you/I do. I think that this hand generally goes under the category of betting/raising (in this case betting the flop) when you are behind in order to clean up outs, thin the field and increase your Equity even if you are still behind.

Whether it's in HEPFAP or SSHE in an not certain butnthat is how I read this hand.


This is where, I think, tstone misses it.... when he says

[13:15] tstone: there is just no way that you bet this flop, a worse hand raises and the other 2 players fold and you have the best hand

The point is ... is that you do not have to have the best hand when villain raises but, rather, you have to increase your Equity after he raises and 1 or both of the limpers fold.

Your instincts, in my very humble opion, were better than tstone's here.

[TStoneMBD]

[ QUOTE ]
The point is ... is that you do not have to have the best hand when villain raises but, rather, you have to increase your Equity after he raises and 1 or both of the limpers fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

mind elaborating on the situations in which you increase your equity by folding out 3 and 6 outters when you dont have the best hand? i know they exist but i would just like to hear your knowledgeable opinion on the matter.

[SomethingClever]

Interesting analysis, but I think you're making it way too complicated.

Scenario A: You check with the intention of calling.

Pros: You may get to see the turn for cheap when you're uncertain of your equity (with only 4 rock solid outs... others are up in the air).

Cons: One of the limpers could raise, facing you with 2 cold and an uncomfortable decision. Not to mention, hands that have you reverse dominated or have a handful of outs will correctly call.

Scenario B: You bet hoping that LAGGY will raise everyone out.

Pros: You often get HU against the LAG. You may cause your opponents to make FTOP mistakes.

Cons: You pay at least 2 SB.

Conclusion:
I think the LAG is either crushing you or well behind. The LRR usually falls into two categories, based on my experience. Monsters like AA or KK, or speculative hands like baby pairs and suited connectors. Occasionally it's AK. Yeah, sometimes he's got suited broadway that hit the board here. But I think he's ususally just raising those preflop with a pfr of 16.

For this reason, I bet the flop and hope he raises to narrow the field. Then I get to showdown cheaply (unless he's a really suspicious LAG... then I want to make sure bets go in on every street).

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The point is ... is that you do not have to have the best hand when villain raises but, rather, you have to increase your Equity after he raises and 1 or both of the limpers fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

mind elaborating on the situations in which you increase your equity by folding out 3 and 6 outters when you dont have the best hand? i know they exist but i would just like to hear your knowledgeable opinion on the matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can handle a bit of sarcasm since I have no recall of previously engaging in direct discussion with you but please do not confuse my pointed commentary for anything other than my true gut feeling and, furthermore, do not mistakenly read my comments as that of a qualified mathematician.

That said... and I have run no Pokerstove kind of stuff here... Preflop, if equity is

%
Hero 20
LAG 40
a limp 30
b limp 10

To the extent that we can fold out alimper and/or blimper on the flop, isn't it clear that we are going to enter the turn with a "higher than 20%" equity? Sure, LAG is going to get his alloquot share of the proceeds but we are still better off being heads up against lag with 40% equity than 20% as we began the flop.

The question is how much do we have to pay in order to increase our equity from the 20% to 40% using the example I gave? I am not wedded to the percentages that I used though and I would, indeed, be interested in hearing anybody's more thorough exploration of this equity analysis.

[TStoneMBD]

you didnt answer my question though