Calculating flush odds MY WAY.

10 handed. 10/20 cent limit. u get a5 of spades. 5 calls = pot total 50 cent.

SB bets > 3 folds. You have 4 flush. the odds of ending up with flush at the showdown are according to D. Sklansky are 1.86 : 1.

My version: 20 cards were dealt out preflop. quarter of them or 5 cards will be in the long run spades. u picked up two. Lets assume the other 3 spades will be folded. and two other on the board.

Shoulnt you calculate the chance of flush at the showdown like this:

13 spades total. u have two and three were folded, 2 spades on board. 6 spades in the deck over. so 6/47 * 5/46 + 6/47 * 41/46 + 41/47 * 6/46.

so odds of ending up with flush are 3.09 : 1

discuss...