What to push on the bubble

[durron597]

I've been busting a lot on the bubble, and not necessarily shortstacked, either. I think I try to play it too aggressively. For example, the following hand from PokerRoom.

I have about 2500 chips and A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 handed in the CO. Blinds are 100/200.

UTG has about 1100 chips and limps, but that doesn't mean much because he's very loose/passive and could have anything. He will almost certainly fold to a big raise from me, so he's not my concern.

Button has about 7000 chips and has been known to push when there are a lot of limpers. Though last time he did it, everyone folded and he showed QQ.

SB has about 1400 chips and is sitting out, I think he got disconnected.

BB has about 3000 chips, and is a pretty solid player, though is a bit loose post-flop in my opinion.

[Marcotte]

I chose "something else". I think I would raise a little less. Maybe to 500 or so. This is one of those hands that hates to be reraised. With an 800 raise (32% of my stack), I feel as if I am on the verge of being pot committed, so if the big stack pushes I don't know what to do except puke. If I raise to 500, I can fold a lot easier. And if the read on UTG is correct, that may be big enough to scare him off. If BB really is solid, he should know enough to let the two smaller stacks duke it out (assuming Button folds).

I also fear a reraise from UTG (as might the BB). He is not in a position to limp, but he did, which means one of two things. 1) He is trying to trap with a big hand, or 2) he's clueless. Either way, he could very well reraise all in, with only 900 left in front of him. When he does so, can I call?

Hmm...

Can I change my answer to fold?

[durron597]

500 chips has virtually zero chance of stealing the blinds. Even if UTG folds, BB will call with almost any two cards.

[Marcotte]

[ QUOTE ]
500 chips has virtually zero chance of stealing the blinds. Even if UTG folds, BB will call with almost any two cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you say this because there is a limper, thus better pot odds? Or because 2.5BB is not big enought to get this particular BB to fold. I've seen many BBs fold to a mini-raise at this blind level (without a limper). (I play PR $10+1's - forgot if you mentioned the buyin in this case).

I guess the thing to decide is what do you want to accomplish with a raise? Win the blinds and the limp? Or get HU with UTG. I think a raise to 500 has a chance at the latter (though maybe less then 50%), but it might cost you another 900 to see the flop. I certainly would be happy with the 500 in the pot already, but I'm not sure I want to risk having an all in battle with UTG. (Another thought; with the SB disconnected, and the BB about to see a flop with UTG, you may be better off check-folding to the money, or at least tightening up a bit.)

The more I think about it, the more it seems like one of those "raising is better than calling, but folding is best of all" situations.

Don't take my word for it. I am very inexperienced, with only ~40 logged SNGs under my belt.

[ddubois]

500 chips has virtually zero chance of stealing the blinds. Even if UTG folds, BB will call with almost any two cards.

I disagree. If anything, the fact that you are raising with a limper already in only increases your fold equity with regards to the BB.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you say this because there is a limper, thus better pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the thing to decide is what do you want to accomplish with a raise? Win the blinds and the limp?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[Jason Strasser]

This question/poll confuses me.

[ QUOTE ]
He will almost certainly fold to a big raise from me, so he's not my concern.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so basically, if you raise all-in he will fold? And you have three people left to act? Well I sure think that A9s has plenty of value with three people to act, and if a raise all-in makes UTG fold every hand, then you must raise all-in. You risk 2500 to win 500, so it's as if the blinds were a little larger than 150/300. I would think everyone should be pushing A9s from the CO with 2500 with 150/300 blinds.

Right?
-Jason

[Marcotte]

[ QUOTE ]
This question/poll confuses me.

[ QUOTE ]
He will almost certainly fold to a big raise from me, so he's not my concern.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so basically, if you raise all-in he will fold? And you have three people left to act? Well I sure think that A9s has plenty of value with three people to act, and if a raise all-in makes UTG fold every hand, then you must raise all-in. You risk 2500 to win 500, so it's as if the blinds were a little larger than 150/300. I would think everyone should be pushing A9s from the CO with 2500 with 150/300 blinds.

Right?
-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

There are actually only 2 left to act, since the SB with T1500 is "away" and presumed disconnected. So A9s goes up even more in value, right? But on the other hand, if SB truly is disconnected, you can easily outlast him, and with UTG left with 900 after limping you should be able to outlast him too. Worst case scenario, he doubles up to 2300 but hits his blinds before you do.

So you have a pretty good chance to limp into the money if you fold.

Now, I doubt this is the right play, but I wanted to point out that option. Would folding be right if you had T3000? T2000? What if the chip leader wasn't so far out in front?

Now if the blinds were 150-300 with no limper, 3 left to act, I would definately push with 2500.

[durron597]

I'm glad you agree with me that this is an easy allin, though in retrospect the reason why I was unsure was that both the button and the BB have me covered, and there are two players left who I expect to bust long before me (loose passive shorty and away shorty).

I raised allin and was called by the BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and while I flopped a flush draw and a backdoor straight draw, I didn't actually improve.

Edit: UTG, not surprisingly, folded.