Right time to push?

[arcticfox]

Apologies for format but convertor does not work with Betfair hand histories (is there an easy work around this?).

This is the £10k guaranteed tournament, top 50 got paid, down to last 20 (21st has just gone out in the middle of this hand so will be in 2 tables after this hand). read on lenny is that he has folded to my aggression before and smells like a blind steal to me. I'm in 12th overall prior to this hand, 13-20 pay £100, 11-12 pay £150, first pays £2550. Is this the right time to make this move or should I wait to be first to be raising with this kind of hand?

Seat 1: Afroman8 (57016.09 in chips)
Seat 3: snowball (30930 in chips)
Seat 4: Albertson (49885 in chips)
Seat 6: Im_lenny (35465.18 in chips)
Seat 8: arcticfox (23275 in chips)
Seat 9: phantom2 (15674.28 in chips)
Seat 10: alyssa09 (39941 in chips)
arcticfox: posts the ante 300
phantom2: posts the ante 300
alyssa09: posts the ante 300
Afroman8: posts the ante 300
snowball: posts the ante 300
Albertson: posts the ante 300
Im_lenny: posts the ante 300
arcticfox: posts small blind 1200
phantom2: posts big blind 2400
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to arcticfox [7c 7h]
alyssa09: folds
Afroman8: folds
Ondariver sits back
andy534 sits back
mug6 sits back
snowball: folds
Albertson: folds
Im_lenny: raises to 7200
arcticfox: raises to 22975 and is all-in
phantom2: folds
Im_lenny: calls 15775

[Lloyd]

Against a fairly wide range of hands he could be raising with from the button, 77 is certainly strong and a favorite. So you should play the hand. You can't just call and fold if you don't hit a set since you don't have good enough odds to just play for set value. Therefore, you need to play this for all your chips. If you re-raise all-in he's getting 2.1 to 1 odds to call - good enough even if he were on a pure steal although my guess is he'd fold with something horrible. I think the better move is a stop-and-go. Call his raise and push the flop regardless of what hits (although I'd probably check a set and hope he pushes).

[arcticfox]

Thanks, I guess my concern with a stop and go was that it makes it more attractive for alyssa to call from the BB for only 4800 more and get the flop to hit her if she has something half decent. Am I over-worrying here?

[billyjex]

I like your play here. A push ensures no funny business from the BB and I think you still have some folding equity here, not much, but your hand also performs well against his range of hands here.

[arcticfox]

I got called by TT and lost, trying not to be results oriented but was just wondering if it was worth pushing against someone who had shown me strength and was likely to call given the odds rather than the scenario where I'm first to shove with 77 where it would be an easy push from LP with these kind of blinds and antes.

[SpeakEasy]

I would fold and wait to do my own stealing. With 77, you're very likely a 50/50 against overcards, or are dominated by a larger pair (like TT...).