Baccarat

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
I know a technique for turning beer into urine. But I'm not going to tell you how. Casinos are aware and are slowly enacting countermeasures.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shhh! Remember the 1st Rule of Fight Club?

[bpb]

[ QUOTE ]
I work with slots 8 hours a day. It is my job. You cant beat them without cheating. But good luck in pursuit of all your angles against the casino. And enjoy your luxurious lifestyle from the large profits you make off beating the house.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't there teams who hit progressive machines when the progressive payout makes the game +EV?

The only thing I never understood was how to calculate the probability of hitting the progressive, given that modern slots use weighted reels.

[Biloxi]

I dont see how it could every be +EV. They are never "due" to hit. Random Number Generators have no memory.
$1 sizzling 7s for example... Ive seen two people play three machines each almost all day and neither hit a progressive, while the other machines hit 4 or 5 times. and with the progressive rarely going over 1300 you can hit and still not come out ahead. And with ten people playing $100 each with NO guarantee of a win it doesnt seem to smart. If they did hit early, the profit would not be much after being split anyway. Theres always the chance of the lil ole lady on he last machine hitting it and costing you big.
But I do see the reasoning behind it in some rare cases.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see how it could every be +EV. They are never "due" to hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if it's 'due' - it's what the odds are. If a progressive has three reels with 27 symbols it will hit the jackpot 127^3), if it's holding 6% you can calculate the cost of playing the machine 27^3 pulls and compare it to the progressive. Of course it can be +EV, and of course +EV does not mean you are going to win.

[Biloxi]

If you do it like that then all the monster progressive would be +EV. Such as the ones that are $5 mil+ for a dollar slot, but I doubt any teams play them nonstop for weeks praying for a hit and invest 100s of thousands. I suppose it could be done though.
We had some idiot hit the MegaBucks $4million progressive with only One coin played hahaha he was crying, I was laughing.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
If you do it like that then all the monster progressive would be +EV. Such as the ones that are $5 mil+ for a dollar slot ...

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not true. The odds of winning the Megabucks progressive is ~ 1:50 million. That can only be won on a $3 bet. It all depends on how the machine is programmed.

Say the machine was programmed to add .05 per coin to the progressive and had a .05 hold (.90 payout). Each play of $3 would cost the player .30 -- and the jackpots real value would have to be above 50MM * .30 to have +EV, or 15 million dollars. For the jackpot to have a real value of 15 million it would have to be, 1) doubled (2 * 15MM = 30MM) to compensate for the annuity payment, and 2) adjusted for taxes of ~ 40% (30MM * 1.666 = 50MM) since we assume you are playing tax free dollars. So in this game you would have a +EV only when the jackpot > 50MM. Of course the EV would get more favorable the longer you played because you (and others) would be increasing the jackpot. In this scenario you actually have a positive expectation because there will only be one winner -- unlike in a state lottery where the adjusted prize exceeds the probability, since the number of tickets sold when that happens always favors more than one winner.

[Biloxi]

are you using copy and paste or actually taking the time to calculate that out [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
Bottom line is slots are worthless to play.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
are you using copy and paste or actually taking the time to calculate that out

[/ QUOTE ]

Calculate what? I was just making up a hypothetical.

The conversation got started when you stated -

[ QUOTE ]
I work with slots 8 hours a day. It is my job. You cant beat them without cheating.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you can -- it just takes a little arithmetic to figure it out.

The progressive jackpot is essentially a parimutuel pool that the house has no interest in -- and it is being offered at fixed odds.

[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line is slots are worthless to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you haven't learned that in your 8 hours a day.

[cardcounter0]

Forget the mega-jackpots, the variance is too high.

Take a slot like "Cherry Pie". Certain combinations would give you a cherry on a pie display. After a certain amount of cherries, you get a slice. Fill all the slices and you get about a $100 to $200 jackpot.

So just stroll down the line of Cherry Pie machines and find one that someone has left with only 2 or 3 cherries left to go to fill the pie. $20 or $30 dollars later, Bingo! A $200 filled pie mini-jackpot. Rinse and repeat.

Of course, Cherry Pie is now on it's third generation chip, the cherries are harder to get, and the pie jackpot is more variable and lower.

Piggy Bankin' was another mini-progressive individual machine jackpot. BOOM! was a gold mine when you found one that someone had left with 45 firecrackers on it.

These machines were slowly replaced or tightened up. Now slot idiot addicts seem to like the video game like features, and the little progressive machines have gone by the way side.

[SheetWise]

cardcounter0 -

I hate the trend as well. I've designed several slot machines over the years -- mechanical and virtual -- but this new stuff is weird. I've watched people play, and sometimes I can't even find the winning combination on the screen. Virtual reality is next. I have the feeling casinos are turning into amusement parks where patrons simply pay their fees with a slight expectation they may make some money. Longing for the green felt jungle.