Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question

[catlover]

Really?

Suppose I have 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I'm delighted to cap it preflop here.

Just for an example, say I end up heads up against a single opponent holding A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I ran this through poker stove. Equity for the three relevant hands is:

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 43%
Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 38%
7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 20% (adds up to 101% due to rounding).

Now I will win the pot if either of my two hands is the winner. That's 58% of the time. Not only that, if the flop is something like 732, the pot is likely to be capped flop, turn, and river.

[mikewvp]

Yep, probably want to play every hand in almost every situation. Even 10 handed you are going to win more than your share and profit.

Should we be capping every hand though?

[snowgurts]

Someone else (I forgot their user name) ran a certain hand through Poker Stove, and it inspired me to run through this situation: what if you managed to limit it to one guy who had AA every hand and "knew" that you had QJ of diamonds every hand?

Pre-flop, this is what you're looking at:
AA: ~70%
QdJd: ~18%
Random: ~13%

The thought is that you have both QJ of diamonds and the random, so when you legitimately have random, you win (perhaps even more because of the deception) and when you can bluff with the QJ. So you win 30% of the time, even when a guy gets AA every single hand. With blinds, you might be looking at good pot odds to call pretty much any hand, even if you do have QJ diamonds.
Of course, being in this situation depends heavily on several things:
<ul type="square">[*]The hypnotherapy of an entire table[*]One guy (it can change, but one guy every hand) gets AA[*]You isolate EVERYONE else out but the guy with AA preflop[/list]If that all happens, you probably shouldn't be in that cardroom to begin with. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jeebus]

I skipped a page of responses so I'm not sure if anyone brought this up yet.

Doesn't this make reading a hand much harder. Suppose you have 56 of spades and your opponent holds the Ax of spades. For whatever reason he calls before the flop (its sooted). The flop comes 4s 7c 2s. You have a straight flush draw, he has top pair and the flush draw. How do you know where you are at to win this hand? Or take the 7 out and change it to a 10. Now he has nothing but a flush draw. He will still cap the flop with the Ace and a flush draw since you only have QJd.
Any hand you play is QJD so any flop that does not hit your hand gives the opponent a reason to continue playing with anything better than Q high. With this happening and more than 2 opponents in a hand a person would get odds to play just about any two cards. The only hands you could play post flop would have to be ones where QJ make near the nuts (and you dont get paid) or you make close enough to the nuts that you will get paid. You will always be up against a hand that can beat QJD and though you can be deceptive with lots of hands, how much will this really add up to help.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

You gain money any time that an opponent believing that you have QJd causes him to call or raise when he would otherwise fold. You lose money any time that an opponent believing that you have QJd causes him to check or fold when he would have otherwise bet, called, or raised.

Pre-flop, players ought to be less inclined to play hands that are dominated by QJ and more inclined to play hands that dominate QJ. If you open-raise from late position, you will probably see hands like Ax or anything else that plays well heads-up against QK three-bet to isolate. Of course, if you three-bet with AA, KJ will probably cap it against you. Additionally, flopping top pair with a Q or J or a diamond draw have lower implied odds.

My guess is that you will probably see fewer flops if the table is aggressive pre-flop to try to take advantage of what they "know." However, you may be inclined to go farther with hands that weakly hit the flop because of a greater chance that your opponent will bluff.

In all, you probably have an increase because you are playing fewer hands, but winning a somewhat higher percentage of somewhat bigger pots. How much I still haven't figured out yet, but it is probably tied to the value of deception and the value of inducing a bluff.

[David Sklansky]

Suited QJ (which won't be diamonds as they have been removed from the deck) is close.

How could a smart guy like you write this?

[snowgurts]

David Sklansky wrote "Suited QJ (which won't be diamonds as they have been removed from the deck) is close.

How could a smart guy like you write this?"

***

QJ suited, even if everyone knows you have it, still has value (although much less than before) -- if you're in the BB, get a free check with the QJ of spades, and hit A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the flop, you can make money the following ways: (1) Someone makes a spade flush and, assuming you have diamonds, re-raises and caps like nobody's business; (2) someone "knows" you're vulnerable to the flush and tries to bluff you; (3) someone sticks around with two pair or trips, hoping to boat on you, but misses.

While the value is greatly diminished (taking into account, of course, the fundamental theorem of poker), but QJ suited still has value in that certain hands (such as Q10 offsuit) is very unlikely to win against it, but might be tempted to draw against you, simply because they KNOW what you hold.

I still wouldn't play it unless I got a free flop from the BB, but it does make you think -- how many people are playing inferior hands and losing a lot of money to you because they know (correctly, in this one situation) of what you hold?

[BettyBoopAA]

"Suppose I have 7 3 . I'm delighted to cap it preflop here.

Just for an example, say I end up heads up against a single opponent holding A K .

I ran this through poker stove. Equity for the three relevant hands is:

A K 43%
Q J 38%
7 3 20% (adds up to 101% due to rounding).

Now I will win the pot if either of my two hands is the winner. That's 58% of the time. Not only that, if the flop is something like 732, the pot is likely to be capped flop, turn, and river"

you bring up the ideal spot but your math is flawed:
1) you don't win much when the QJ is the winning hand
2) your preflop raise won't thin the field much as you think since everyone is sure you only have QJ
3) Your playing a multi pot with people who have better hands than QJ.
Very likely someone will hit the flop. Will you fold
to a raise on this flop
Q 7 2 with your 7 3 or do you think everyone still has AK.

[RocketManJames]

I think how much my win rate would go up is hugely dependent upon the stack sizes of the opponents I was playing against.

At some point I will have a nut hand that is NOT QJd. And, they will have a hand that beats QJd. I will basically go to the felt with them, and I will win 100% of his stack. I will continue to wait for the nuts, and have them go to the felt.

I would try my best to play in games where they have gigantic stacks, and there was no raising cap when the play gets down to heads-up.

Is your point that any time you are 100% certain and are incorrect, you stand to lose everything?

In edit: I would see the flop 100% of the time with hands that have reasonable chances to make the nuts. Any connectors and 1-gappers. Suited Aces. For the rest of the hands, I don't really know, but I'd play a ton of them.

-RMJ

[Bunch]

I think David meant that we were playing 10-20 limit, no no limit, It would be a bit crazy if it was NL.