Read my mind

[jason_t]

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"I hate ddubois"

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FYP.

[ddubois]

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Tons of hands he could play this way so the turn and river are both must raises. Considering the preflop action a lower set (or even an ace two pair) is much more likely than 87.

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I should have mentioned in the OP he was a LAG; something like 70/25.

So these are the things going through my head:
1) I have (almost) all the aces, so the chance of him having one is small.
2) He wouldn't open-limp on the button with an ace, so combined with #1, I think the odds of him having an ace is around 0%.
3) It seemed unlikely to me that he wouldn't try to steal with a pocket pair, so in a Bayesian sense, even though there are 3 ways to have 55, and 3 ways to have 66, they seemed less likely holdings than that, say ~1 way each.
4) Raising and then calling smelled like a draw. I had had people on this table go nuts on the flop with draws earlier (althought I'm not sure this opponent had). There are three draws out there 34, 47, and 78. I thought it unlikely he was open-limping the first two, but 78 made perfect sense for a button open-limp. I'll give ~4 ways for 34s.
6) There's 16 ways for him to have 78, and 2 ways for him to have 56s (and 7 ways for him to have 56o, but again, in a baysian sense, 56o seems less likely than that, maybe ~4).

Maybe I'm just bragging here, but after his flop raise I had a strong sense that he had exactly 78.

So with ~2 ways to have a set, ~0 ways to have an ace, ~2 ways to have 56s, ~4 ways to have 56o, then I'm behind 66% of the time. (For the hands he doesn't fold to my 3-bet I mean.) What are these other hands that he could have?

I couldn't give it a Nikla-esque river bet-fold, but I was pretty proud of this read, even if everyone else hates it.

[Willluck]

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"I hate ddubois"

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FYP.

[/ QUOTE ]and the new forum troll is................................................ .....jason_t! congrats buddy!! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[mikewvp]

"Maybe I'm just bragging here, but after his flop raise I had a strong sense that he had exactly 78."

Maybe you are just playing bad, and you had it reinforced like a results oriented player.

[ddubois]

Did you see a specific flaw in my analysis, or just scan my post for a good sentence to quote and make a pithy quip on? My question "What are these other hands ..." was not a rhetorical one.

What's interesting to me is, had I been holding A6 - a "worse" hand - I would have 3-bet the turn.

[baronzeus]

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Did you see a specific flaw in my analysis, or just scan my post for a good sentence to quote and make a pithy quip on? My question "What are these other hands ..." was not a rhetorical one.

What's intertsting to me is, had I been holding A6 - a "worse" hand - I would have 3-bet the turn.

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Uhh I dont understand this last statement . You 3bet with 2pr and just call with AAA?

[Buck_65]

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Did you see a specific flaw in my analysis, or just scan my post for a good sentence to quote and make a pithy quip on? My question "What are these other hands ..." was not a rhetorical one.

What's interesting to me is, had I been holding A6 - a "worse" hand - I would have 3-bet the turn.

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Stop trying to defend yourself. You played your hand terribly and probably saved yourself 2 or more bets this one time by playing like a results oriented wuss. Villain plays this way with a lot of hands, I'll leave it up to you as a homework assignment to figure out what those might be. (Hint: there are many of them)

[ddubois]

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Uhh I dont understand this last statement . You 3bet with 2pr and just call with AAA?

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Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. By holding only one ace, it becomes substantially more probable villan has one, and despite my point #2, I have to consider a dry ace within his possible range. (Even discounted because I'm pretty sure he would raise any ace with a ~25% pfr, it creeps his non-78 range up enough that I have to "play normal".)

[Buck_65]

I've seen these symptoms somewhere before...seek medical assistance immediately. I do believe you suffer from the dreaded FPS. Do something about it before it's too late.

[baronzeus]

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Uhh I dont understand this last statement . You 3bet with 2pr and just call with AAA?

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Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. By holding only one ace, it becomes substantially more probable villan has one, and despite my point #2, I have to consider a dry ace within his possible range. (Even discounted because I'm pretty sure he would raise any ace with a ~25% pfr, it creeps his non-78 range up enough that I have to "play normal".)

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ROFL. A6 is beaten by A9 and any set while AA is not. You have ONE hand that beats you. I just dont understand. I hope you play all your AA like this, so I can lose significantly less money when I flop an under-set or 2pair.