Shamu's Large NFL Favorites Thread

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Notice how I acknowledged that in my original post?

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed how you edited your original post to add that after I made my post, and please dont try to tell me it was always there...... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You know, you were one of the few posters I actually respected. You seem to be a standup guy and you generally know your stuff. But to just blatantly lie like that is pretty bold. If you really care that much, I'm sure that one of the mods will tell you that the original post is unedited and that you just read it too fast.

EDIT: Plus I thought when a post was edited, there was something that showed up that said "this post has been edited"

EDIT: Oh and btw you can't edit a post after someone has replied in the thread.

[ QUOTE ]
I am very very tempted to lock and/or delete this thread. Thus far, I am letting it stay purely for the comedy element. I can be convinced otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you lock this thread? It's just another picks thread, like the millions of other picks thread that exist in this forum.

[ QUOTE ]
Today I took: Bengals -9

your a genius

[/ QUOTE ]

We already know your position on this issue and we already know that you are not changing your mind. So in the future you can refrain from making these types of posts.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to prove that it can be profitable over the long term by selectively betting on large NFL favorites at widely available lines.

also, how long do you plan on posting these? since there are few favorites of > 7 each week and you are 'selective' it should only take 10+ years for your record to mean close to anything. so basically you will never 'prove' anything.

i had cincy this week also. in a teaser down to -2.5 along with indy, which is blindly +EV and clearly the best way to bet this side.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you read my last post in the previous thread, I basically said what you just said. I'm not going to prove anything. I'm just going to post every play on a large favorite that I make and others can draw their own conclusions if they want.

[ QUOTE ]
What makes this theory special from all the other moron homers who think the favs will cover every week?

[/ QUOTE ]
Guids, I'm not peddling any system or theory. There was a discussion in the previous thread where sublime and many others in this forum stated that they don't think there is value in betting large favorites in the NFL while I think there is. So I started this thread to just keep track of the large favorites that I bet and others can draw their own conclusions off of my results if they wish.

[ QUOTE ]
What makes this theory special from all the other moron homers who think the favs will cover every week?

[/ QUOTE ]
Btw, if you want to insult me, you should at least get your terminology right. A homer is someone who loves betting on their home team. But that particular team is not always the favorite in the matchup. Blindly making homer picks and blindly betting favorites are two easy ways to lose money, yes, but they are not the same thing.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to prove that it can be profitable over the long term by selectively betting on large NFL favorites at widely available lines.

also, how long do you plan on posting these? since there are few favorites of > 7 each week and you are 'selective' it should only take 10+ years for your record to mean close to anything. so basically you will never 'prove' anything.

i had cincy this week also. in a teaser down to -2.5 along with indy, which is blindly +EV and clearly the best way to bet this side.

[/ QUOTE ]

Regardless of where you stand on this issue, you gotta admit that this sounds like someone who is afraid that he's going to be proven wrong. If he were really confident, he would just wait for me to make my picks and eventually I would fail.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Notice how I acknowledged that in my original post?

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed how you edited your original post to add that after I made my post, and please dont try to tell me it was always there...... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You know, you were one of the few posters I actually respected. You seem to be a standup guy and you generally know your stuff. But to just blatantly lie like that is pretty bold. If you really care that much, I'm sure that one of the mods will tell you that the original post is unedited and that you just read it too fast.

EDIT: Plus I thought when a post was edited, there was something that showed up that said "this post has been edited"

EDIT: Oh and btw you can't edit a post after someone has replied in the thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe it was already there, I did read it quickly but I didnt remember seeing anything about posting late. I just saw how late the post was made and thought oh great another troll making retarded posts. But I doubt you'd go to such great lengths to prove other wise if you didnt edit it so, I apologize. Post on, just try to get em in before kick off [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it was already there, I did read it quickly but I didnt remember seeing anything about posting late. I just saw how late the post was made and thought oh great another troll making retarded posts. But I doubt you'd go to such great lengths to prove other wise if you didnt edit it so, I apologize. Post on, just try to get em in before kick off [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
No worries. I guess I was wrong too. Apparently the "edit" link is still available for my last series of posts (but not the original post) even after you posted.
I plan on posting each play before kickoff. This really was a one time deal, but I realize now how lame it looks.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to prove that it can be profitable over the long term by selectively betting on large NFL favorites at widely available lines.

also, how long do you plan on posting these? since there are few favorites of > 7 each week and you are 'selective' it should only take 10+ years for your record to mean close to anything. so basically you will never 'prove' anything.

i had cincy this week also. in a teaser down to -2.5 along with indy, which is blindly +EV and clearly the best way to bet this side.

[/ QUOTE ]

Regardless of where you stand on this issue, you gotta admit that this sounds like someone who is afraid that he's going to be proven wrong. If he were really confident, he would just wait for me to make my picks and eventually I would fail.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually it sounds like someone who knows that luck plays an enormous role in the short term. since it will take decade to rack up enough picks for ANY signifigant W/L record in this trial, whats the point?

also, you keep twisting my posts from the previous thread around. here were my main points:

a) on a card that featured some awesome home dog plays you said a team laying -13 was the best bet. i said this shows more than 100 picks would show. i am right in this regard.

b) actually there is no second or 3rd point. i am tired of arguing with people who have done a fraction the amount of research and betting i have done, yet tell me the world is flat. good luck going forward.