River Line w/ KK vs LAG

x2ski · #1 11-06-2005, 05:42 AM

Villain is a 28/14 after ~250 hands.

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, CO 3-bets, 1 folds, SB calls, 1 folds, Hero caps, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13.00 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

River: (13.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets

Nick C · #2 11-06-2005, 06:08 AM

What a river card. Talk about a mixed blessing.

You wouldn't think CO would raise again with his pocket 5's or KQo, but who knows?

A bet may be the best way to get paid off by QQ, but at the same time I don't think I'm willing to fold top set against my LAGgy opponent.

What I'd be deciding between on the river is bet-calling and check-calling, but I really don't know what's best.

BoxLiquid · #3 11-06-2005, 06:23 AM

Is it not possible he might even have AA?

Nick C · #4 11-06-2005, 06:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is it not possible he might even have AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

That hand and AK and AQ all seem possible to me.

(Edit: And so are A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and so on. It's hard to know, against a LAG.)

x2ski · #5 11-06-2005, 06:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What I'd be deciding between on the river is bet-calling and check-calling, but I really don't know what's best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little buzzed now, but I'll try to present my reasoning...

First of all, my pre-flop cap narrows my hand range a bit. Regardless of how intuitive my opponent is, he can be pretty confident that I have something.

Unfortunately, since I capped his preflop 3-bet, I can't rule out the possibility he has AA. Unless he is suffering from a momentary bout of FPS, not capping the flop vs. my 3-bet virtually eliminates the possibility of AA, so I should be good.

His turn raise gets me thinking... Either he slow-played a flopped set (seems reasonable), turned his set with QQ (also reasonable) or turned a straight with AK (seemed least likely since my aggression pre-flop wouldn't warrant a free-card raise on the flop by him, LAG or not).

In conclusion, everything leading up to the river made it seem as though the only hand I was losing to was AK, and since AK seemed to be the least likely possibility based on my read, I bet out for value.

There is a 99% chance I would have folded to a raise.

Nick C · #6 11-06-2005, 06:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[Unfortunately, since I capped his preflop 3-bet, I can't rule out the possibility he has AA. Unless he is suffering from a momentary bout of FPS, not capping the flop vs. my 3-bet virtually eliminates the possibility of AA, so I should be good.

[/ QUOTE ]

You were at the table and I wasn't, so your read on Villain should be much better than mine.

In general, however, I think enough players like to be fancy that we can't rule out the idea that Villain waited until the turn to raise again with AA instead of capping the flop.

BoxLiquid · #7 11-06-2005, 06:42 AM

Good reasoning.. In my opinion I would have to rule out AK. An maniac player in 3/6 raising the flop to get a free card? Would LAGs do a sophisticated play like that with AK on this board? He needs a Queen to hit the nuts and A or K.

I just can't see an LAG trying something like that in my experience.

I would have to observe my opponent to see if he's the type that would raise for a free card.

I can definetely see an LAG calling the flop to get ready to raise the turn with AA. If none of those then he probably hit his set of queens or hit some set on the flop getting ready to raise the turn.

You know how LAGs and maniacs overvalue their aces.

Theres not enough information IMO to know if he has an ace.

Maybe check calling the river would be fine. He seems to have some kind of hand. and LAGs love to bet.

Good evaluations all [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img].

x2ski · #8 11-06-2005, 06:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion I would have to rule out AK. An maniac player in 3/6 raising the flop to get a free card? Would LAGs do a sophisticated play like that with AK on this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

He was a LAG, not a maniac, so I had to give him some credit.

I'm not saying that your thoughts are incorrect, but the fact that he wasn't ri-donk-ulo factored into my reasoning.

BoxLiquid · #9 11-06-2005, 06:55 AM

Let me tell you.. This is really an interesting hand. I am boggled with what to do on the river. All I can say is it really sucks getting reraised.

Just curious.. What did he have?

x2ski · #10 11-06-2005, 07:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Let me tell you.. This is really an interesting hand. I am boggled with what to do on the river. All I can say is it really sucks getting reraised.

Just curious.. What did he have?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not telling (yet).

It's late and I'm gonna crash. I'll get back to this tomorrow (after the Packers lose again godammit).