Do I need to Check-Call the river here instead of betting out?

[GreggyB]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

[rafct]

If he is an average player, I dont see why he would want to cap this flop with only a flush draw, and would assume he can be on another hand often enough that we can want to extract value by check-raising this river.

[aK13]

No. What do you think MP is capping with on the flop? You hit your set, almost a 99% chance he doesn't have a flush. I'd cap the river.

You also picked up a K high flush draw on the turn. Bet out, call a raise.

[AlmightyJay]

Villian's betting on the flop isn't consistent with a flush draw; I'd put him on a set before I'd put him on the flush. I would 3-bet this river, I think he's got a set or two pair enough times to make it +EV. Obviously I could be wrong, though.

[imported_bezdi]

Chances are MP is limping with a pocket pair after your UTG raise, if he had AA, KK, or QQ, he would cap pre-flop and not want any multiway action. Looks like he made a set on the flop and capped it (unless this guy is really aggressive on flush draws).

On a more aggressive play, you may want to cap the turn with your K spades draw. But since you checked, he is going to bet and try to represent the flush.

River, he still hasn't put you on a KK hand and continues to think his set is best. Cap him.

[RandBriscoe]

FWIW, I am actually finding it extremely common for standard players to intuitively pump their flush draws on the flop (especially ace high). Usually they're correct. Evidently, this guy decided it was ok HU.

Maybe I'm wrong (or a weak-tight pussy) but...
I check-call this river and think there is a good chance villain shows the flush. If I'm betting the river and I'm raised, I know I'm done. Why not spend the same amount and show it down?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm betting the river and I'm raised, I know I'm done.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you? 33, JJ, and 66 all raise this river, as do some laggy 2-pairs.

[RandBriscoe]

If you bet the river K after check-calling the turn, I would say that most players end up calling with 33 and 66 (I think JJ reraises pf so I've eliminated it)

What I'm saying is that if I'm shown a laggy two-pair or smaller set, so be it. However, often enough, I think I'm shown a pumped flush draw on the flop that's completed on the turn to check-call this.

[RandBriscoe]

Greggy, what did Villain show out of curiosity?

[reubenf]

I 3-bet that river and call the cap.