Two personal beliefs and their consequences

[Stu Pidasso]

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Conclusion: the computer has free will, because you can't enter the prediction of what # it will pick, even though you know the exact rule it is using to pick the #.

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You know I would not even bother to play such a game against the computer becuase it would be a complete waste of time. However against Bill Gates I might play a few rounds.

The difference between a man and robot is that a man can let the demon be right.

According to Wikipedia

Determinism in the West is often associated with Newtonian physics, which depicts the physical matter of the universe as operating according to a set of fixed, knowable laws. The "billiard ball" hypothesis, a product of Newtonian physics, argues that once the initial conditions of the universe have been established the rest of the history of the universe follows inevitably. If it were actually possible to have complete knowledge of physical matter and all of the laws governing that matter at any one time, then it would be theoretically possible to compute the time and place of every event that will ever occur (Laplace's demon). In this sense, the basic particles of the universe operate in the same fashion as the rolling balls on a billiard table, moving and striking each other in predictable ways to produce predictable results.

I believe all actions follow to a degree deterministic laws, but I wholeheartly reject this view of determinism. If this veiw was correct nothing could prevent the demon from making an accurate prediction(including the stringent constraints of the thought experiment).

Stu

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If this veiw was correct nothing could prevent the demon from making an accurate prediction(including the stringent constraints of the thought experiment).

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What prevents you from accurately predicting the # the computer will print on the screen? Free will?

The fact is, the demon CAN predict what you will do -- it's just that by telling you in advance of your action, he is adding another cause into the equation. Just like entering a # into my computer program adds a cause in determining what # is printed on the screen.

I don't believe in fatalism, by the way. I think QM makes it impossible to accurately predict outcomes, but you can still accurately predict probabilities, as well as know exactly which variables would tip the scales even more in favor of whatever outcome you wanted.

[Stu Pidasso]

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The fact is, the demon CAN predict what you will do -- it's just that by telling you in advance of your action, he is adding another cause into the equation. Just like entering a # into my computer program adds a cause in determining what # is printed on the screen.


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Yes but the demon knows this just as I know the computer program will display a "1" if I input "0". The difference is every prediction I make with the little computer game is supposed to be wrong and I am most certain they would all turn out wrong. I know that it is impossible for me to make an accurate prediction.

According to determinism every prediction the demon makes is supposed to be right. Determinism also holds that there is nothing the demon is unable to predict. It holds that if the demon predicts that I will eat the ice cream, then I will eat the ice cream. If the demon predicts the next character printed on the computer screen will be an "0", then a "0" will be displayed regardless of what key is actually pressed (the demon already knows what key is going to pressed).

Stu

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The fact is, the demon CAN predict what you will do -- it's just that by telling you in advance of your action, he is adding another cause into the equation. Just like entering a # into my computer program adds a cause in determining what # is printed on the screen.


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Yes but the demon knows this just as I know the computer program will display a "1" if I input "0". The difference is every prediction I make with the little computer game is supposed to be wrong and I am most certain they would all turn out wrong. I know that it is impossible for me to make an accurate prediction.

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No it's not. You can tell me: I will enter a "0" and the computer will print a "1". You can do this as many times as you need to convince me that the computer output does not have free will, and that you have sufficient understanding of the working of it to predict its output. The demon can do the exact same thing.

The fact that your entering of the # into the computer, or the demon entering his "prediction" into your head makes you do something other than what was entered or "predicted", does not mean the demon didn't know what you would really end up doing -- it just means that he can't tell you before hand, because then you would act differently.

If you don't get this, I give up. This is very simple.

[Stu Pidasso]

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it just means that he can't tell you before hand, because then you would act differently

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Determinism holds that once the initial conditions of the universe have been established the rest of the history of the universe follows inevitably. That means that wether or not I am fated to eat the ice cream was written 15 billion years ago at the big bang. It doesn't matter if the demon reveals to me his prediction unless I have a choice in the matter. If I have a choice then history is not inevitable as determinism holds.


Stu

[wtfsvi]

Meh. It would also be decided before hand what the demon would tell you. Really, the scenario doesn't show anything.

[Stu Pidasso]

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Meh. It would also be decided before hand what the demon would tell you. Really, the scenario doesn't show anything.

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If Determinism is true then the demon also does not have free will and the history of his actions were inevitably set at the creation of the universe. It would be impossible for the demon to make a prediction you could go against. The demon would either make a prediction you fulfill or make no prediction at all.

However if the demon does make a prediction and your action is opposite of that prediction, then determinism has failed. Free will exist.

The only way the senario can prove or disprove determinism is if it is actually played out. Unfortunately that will not happen and we can only think about it as a thought experiment. Its only usefulness is to clarify the intuitive.

The reason the thought experiment leads me to believe determinism is false is because I believe that if the demon made a prediction I could take the opposite action, and I can't envision a reliable process that would block the demon from making a wrong prediction. I suppose the demon could have a coronary and die just before making a wrong predicition but the probability of that is pretty low.

Stu