PS 2/4: AJs

[DaveB]

With no read on MP2 there's no way I fold the river.

[akishore]

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With no read on MP2 there's no way I fold the river.

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what does an average player cap preflop that you beat on the river?

KJ?
AT?
JJ?

not only that, villian has betting the whole way and is even value betting this river.

aseem

Preflop is actually a pretty decent question. The flop and turn are fine, but I can't see folding this on the river against an unknown. You have TPTK.

[Hamlet]

I think people are making huge assumption that the hero's opponent knows what he is doing. The hero is 8 tabling, so has pretty much no read. This could be a maniac that caps every hand he raises as often as it is a solid player that only caps AA-JJ and AK.

It is way too weak-tight to fold on the river with no knowledge that our opponent knows what they are doing.

You're probably beat. But 8-1? Do the solid players out-number the nutjobs 8-1? Not in my experience.

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he's getting 8-to-1 and needs to win this hand more than 1 out of 9 times.

what does villian three-bet here and keep betting the whole way, including value betting the river, that hero can beat?

AK has him, AQ has him, AA beats him, KK beats him, QQ beats him. there is no question this is a correct river fold, although it looks very tempting to call.

aseem

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[bryan4967]

sometimes you have to look the villian up to let him know he can't push you off with his busted flush/straight. I don't know where i got the 95%.

[Argus]

I can't believe there is so much debate. Calling the river is a leak considering the capping range of most players, particularly after a 3-bet from the blinds. You could be against an overplayed JJ-TT, but besides that I can think of no reasonable hands you beat and many that beat you: AK, AQs, KK, QQ. Without a solid read that villain will overplay hands like this a call is unwarranted.

[kenberman]

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The flop call is easy getting 9.5:1 with a gutshot, bk flush draw, and discounted A outs. The turn call is super easy getting over 6:1 on a flush and gutshot draw.

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By the river I think we've realized that our pair of aces is good here close to never and the fold is in order.

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You can't count your Aces as outs on the flop if you're going to fold the river, HU, for 1 bet when an Ace hits. also, why does an Ace go from an out on the flop, but not the turn? it's not like we've gained any more information on the opponents hands.

[hobbsmann]

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The flop call is easy getting 9.5:1 with a gutshot, bk flush draw, and discounted A outs. The turn call is super easy getting over 6:1 on a flush and gutshot draw.

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By the river I think we've realized that our pair of aces is good here close to never and the fold is in order.

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You can't count your Aces as outs on the flop if you're going to fold the river, HU, for 1 bet when an Ace hits. also, why does an Ace go from an out on the flop, but not the turn? it's not like we've gained any more information on the opponents hands.

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I should have been more clear, but given the villian's range JJ-TT will bet the flop, but will more than likely slow down by the river. So on the flop there is a small chance or A outs are good, but as the hand proceeds it becomes apparent that they were not.

[Argus]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
You can't count your Aces as outs on the flop if you're going to fold the river, HU, for 1 bet when an Ace hits. also, why does an Ace go from an out on the flop, but not the turn? it's not like we've gained any more information on the opponents hands.

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You don't need to count any ace outs for a flop call to be correct. You have 5.5 effective outs, and getting 9.5-1 you shouldn't fold.

One reason you might consider the aces to be worth perhaps a single out on the flop and not the turn is the possibility villain has QQ. While JJ may have capped preflop, I don't see a thinking villain (or most unthinking ones for that matter) betting it again on the river when the ace falls and all you've done is call. So on the turn the possibility that your ace is any good disappears.

[callmedonnie]

I would definitely call the raise. reraise if it is a player who raises light. When MP2 raises, I never think of it as a steal really. There are still what, 6 players to act afterwards pf? I would probably lead flop, c/c turn, and river I usually end up c/c also. Sometimes even raising.