How bad is variance?

I've played 20k hands at $25NL full ring.

My bankroll started at $100. I'm using ed miller SS strategy so my buyins are $5.

I played until I hit $387 and then cashed out to end up at $100.

Then I was playing some more. In one day I went from $115 to $15, and then the next day I took that $15 to $205.

I know that limit has higher variance than no limit.

I know that the ideal bankroll SHOULD be 20x the buyin. Hence I had a $100 bankroll for $5 buyins.

My question is...How bad is variance really?!?!??! Assuming that I don't really tilt (I multitable but consistently control how I play so as to not induce tilt).

Is the 20x bankroll theory enough?!? I almost had a 20x buyin swing in a day....one the negative direction and one the positive direction.

[DCWGaming]

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I know that the ideal bankroll SHOULD be 20x the buyin. Hence I had a $100 bankroll for $5 buyins.


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...hahaha

[PoBoy321]

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I know that the ideal bankroll SHOULD be 20x the buyin. Hence I had a $100 bankroll for $5 buyins.

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...hahaha

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I don't get it, if he's utilizing Ed Miller's short stack strategy, I don't see the problem.

[DCWGaming]

the 20x buyin idea is based on a full buyin. It is pretty obvious that there will be much more variance (buyins/hands) with a 5$ buyin than there will be with a 25$ buyin. The BB/hand variance will be higher with a full buyin. But with a 5$ buyin, you will be tossing and picking up buyins left and right. The variance will be much higher and require more than 20x buyin bankroll.

My suggestion is to either take your 100$ and play microlimits, or take your 500$ and play full buyin of the same level. You've gotta learn to play poker, bro.

I don't know about Ed Miller's short stack strategy... but honestly... I think buying in for the full $25 and learning how to play real poker is really worth it.

The games are SO soft at that limit and SO retarded that if you can hold any hands you can get paid SO easily and make a lot more money.

Of course... that's assuming you're a strong player. But it's the best place to learn to become a strong player too.

Nothing like Donkey's calling 45BBs to the river with a gutshot.

[Bco1/75]

I thought Ed millers theory was to prevent wild bank roll swings (with small BRs)when a donkey calles your KK preflop with A6 and gets paid off when he spikes a river A? If your bankroll is large enough to prevent these swings. by all means max your buy-in

[jaxUp]

A link that somebody recommended. I have never read it though, because I don't play SnGsWhy SnG variance is worse than limit

Here is another thread with some variance talk oocurs later on in the thread. Warning: There is a lot of useless posts in this thread...pay attention to shillx's post, and some of the ones around it especially.

another thread

[soko]

it's the other way around, no limit has a much higher variance than limit. and the swings in no limit are much more sharp than they are in limit. is that's what you meant to say?

[4_2_it]

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it's the other way around, no limit has a much higher variance than limit. and the swings in no limit are much more sharp than they are in limit. is that's what you meant to say?

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You are half correct. Limit has a much higher variance over the long run, but the short term swings are much greater in NL.

[DCWGaming]

You cant really look at variance that way.... No way can you compare 5/10 limit to 5/10 NL or anything.

The best you can really do is look at a variancerofitability ratio.

I'm 90% sure NL has a better ratio.